Pollster Pitfalls
Robert Cahaly, who predicted a Trump win in 2016, reveals his 2020 forecast.
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Episode Notes
On the Gist, an Alaskan drama.
In the interview, Mike talks with Robert Cahaly, head pollster of the Atlanta-based Trafalgar Group. Robert explains their polling methodology in gathering accurate opinion data, why social desirability bias comes into play, and how his team was able to predict Trump’s win in 2016. Now he posits that in 2020 Trump has more support than the polls could be showing.
In the spiel, Kabuki-style hearings continue for Amy Coney Barrett.
Email us at thegist@slate.com
Podcast production by Daniel Schroeder and Margaret Kelley.
