In the 2021 off-year elections, so much of what took down Democrats, like Terry McAuliffe in the Virginia governor’s race, was “schools,” broadly defined. First, it was (very understandably) extended school closures and learning losses during COVID. Then it became the curricula itself and suggestions that “critical race theory” was being jammed down students’ throats, teaching white children to hate themselves. However iffy that may have been, it sounded frightening to lots of white voters, in a radical leftist Harvard-y way.
These education battles haven’t gone away, and curricula remain on the ballot in school board races across the country. But on the national level (especially after primary season ended), the focus of Republicans’ message has shifted—to inflation, yes, but also toward one of the oldest hits in the book: crime.
Violent crime increases have been a real problem across the country—in cities and rural areas alike. Public officials, scholars, and communities have diverse answers about why crime has trended up over the past few years: Disruption from COVID? Police standing down, resigning, or suffering low morale following the George Floyd protests of 2020? Proliferation of firearms? People wanting to be “cool” again by doing crime?
Whatever the case, what we’ve learned this fall is that the real reason crime is going up nationally is because of John Fetterman and Mandela Barnes, the Democratic Senate candidates in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, respectively. Crime is up because Fetterman upped clemency recommendations as the chair of the Board of Pardons in Pennsylvania and because Barnes had worked as a state legislator to end cash bail.
It is hard, specifically in Barnes’ case, to ignore the race-baiting aspects of these attacks when the ad shows Barnes’ face amid a background of police sirens. And two brothers whom Fetterman recommended for clemency, who are a focus of Republicans’ attacks, are literally named Horton.
The well-funded attacks have worked. Mehmet Oz clawed his way back into a toss-up for the Pennsylvania Senate seat, and Sen. Ron Johnson has a modest polling lead in Wisconsin. But crime is blossoming as the go-to bogeyman beyond just those two states. The issue has brought Republican Lee Zeldin into contention for the New York governor’s race and could help flip the Oregon governor’s mansion red for the first time since the 1980s.
The issue is evidently jumping off Democrats’ charts, too, as House Democrats spent their final few days in session in September grinding through a public safety package to inoculate vulnerable members against charges of “defunding the police.” It’s a vote Democrats are rushing to tout in their closing campaign ads, something Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been publicly urging them to do.
Inflation, an unpopular Democratic president, and economic jitters are the backdrop of Republicans’ pickups. Crime is the scary ad material to close the deal.
