The Slatest

Poll: Warren Overtakes Biden in Iowa for First Time

Democratic presidential hopefuls former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren participate in the third Democratic primary debate of the 2020 presidential campaign season at Texas Southern University in Houston, Texas on September 12, 2019.
Democratic presidential hopefuls former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren participate in the third Democratic primary debate of the 2020 presidential campaign season at Texas Southern University in Houston, Texas on September 12, 2019.
ROBYN BECK/Getty Images

Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s campaign is surging and that is evident in Iowa, where the latest poll shows her overtaking Joe Biden to claim the top spot in the key state. Warren enjoys a lead of two percentage points as 22 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers say she is their first choice for president, according to the the latest Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll. Biden comes in at 20 percent while Sen. Bernie Sanders fell to third place with 11 percent. None of the other candidates get past the single digits.

“This is the first major shakeup” in what had been a fairly steady race, said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. “It’s the first time we’ve had someone other than Joe Biden at the top of the leader board.”

It may very well not be the final shakeup in the race. After all, only one in five likely Democratic caucusgoers say their minds are made up. For now Warren is the best-liked candidate in Iowa, with 75 percent of likely caucusgoers saying that they view her favorably. Biden, on the other hand, is only seen favorably by 66 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers and his numbers have been steadily decreasing in each successive poll in the state. Biden’s favorability rating, for example, was at 82 percent in December.

Despite the good news for Warren’s campaign, the numbers do make it evident she could quickly fall. Almost nine in 10 likely caucusgoers who say Warren is their first choice say they could also be convinced to support another candidate in the presidential race. Biden supporters seem a lot more sure of themselves, with 70 percent saying they could be convinced to back another candidate.