The Gist

Trump Will Lose in 2020

That’s according to a new forecasting model that puts demographics over polling numbers—and was spot-on in 2018.

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On The Gist, it’s a good day for those who love quarterly fundraising numbers among Democratic presidential candidates!

In the interview, we’re used to the Nate Silver approach to election forecasting, using constantly changing polling data to predict the likelihood of this or that result. But Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy, has a better way.
Her new model, based on negative partisanship and demographics, is more static, and proved spot-on in 2018. So what does it have to say for 2020?

In the Spiel, a theory on what’s really keeping Kellyanne and George Conway together.

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Twitter: @slategist

Podcast production by Pierre Bienaimé and Daniel Schroeder.