Today’s special election in Arizona’s 8th district to replace Congressman Trent Franks hasn’t garnered nearly the attention of the other high-profile races of the past year. That’s understandable, as the odds of Republicans keeping the seat seem, outwardly, very good. The district went for Trump by 21 points in 2016 and Republicans hold a wide lead over Democrats in the over 150,000 early ballots that have already been cast.
Most votes in the election will have been cast by mail, which works to the GOP’s advantage, given that Democrats can’t ride on increased enthusiasm and turnout at the polls. “It’s probably not a coincidence that Dems have struggled in low turnout specials where a majority of the votes have been cast by mail, like in Florida and Washington State,” the New York Times’ Nate Cohn tweeted Tuesday afternoon.
Yet, there’s reason to believe the race is close: averaged, three recent polls give Republican state Senator Debbie Lesko a lead of only about three points over Democrat Hiral Tipirneni, a medical research advocate running on a Medicare buy-in. If that lead holds and Tipirneni loses narrowly, it’ll be another good sign for Democrats hoping to do well in red state elections, including Arizona’s Senate race, come November. And a win for Tipirneni would be cause for real alarm among Republican campaign groups which, wary of taking the race fully for granted, have spent around $1 million in the district.
The 8th’s demographics should soothe them a bit, as the district is both whiter and far older than the median House seat. But, that doesn’t mean it’s curtains for Tipirneni, and tonight’s results will be well worth parsing in any case.
