The Slatest

Today’s Impeach-O-Meter: The Light at the End of the Tunnel

Donald Trump at the White House on Thursday.
Donald Trump at the White House on Thursday.
Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

The Impeach-O-Meter is a wildly subjective and speculative daily estimate of the likelihood that Donald Trump leaves office before his term ends, whether by being impeached (and convicted) or by resigning under threat of same.

We haven’t done an Impeach-O-Meter in a while because there wasn’t much new to say about Donald Trump’s political standing. But three things have changed in recent days:

1. Polling has started to look better again for Democrats’ chances of taking the House. Eric Levitz at New York magazine has that all covered here.

2. Robert Mueller started indicting people again.

3. The Parkland, Florida massacre happened. Or, more to the point, the immediate and relentless gun-control activism of a contingent of Parkland survivors happened, and with a gun-violence march on Washington scheduled for March 24, the issue isn’t going to fade soon. (A march on March twenty-fourth? March Forth? Someone’s paying homage to their “funny” social studies teacher!) The president’s insane rambling aside, there is a possibility that the Parkland wave is strong enough that limited but meaningful gun-violence legislation will pass Congress.

In recent months the success of Trump’s trillion-dollar corporate/rich-guy tax cut, his constant attacks on the credibility of the special counsel investigation, and the drip of stories about punitive and unnecessary ICE deportations seemed to have taken some air out of the feeling of potential that coalesced around the Women’s March in January 2017 and surged again with Doug Jones’ victory in Alabama. It’s exhausting to have your powerlessness about bad news underlined every day, and it’s winter and it’s dark and it’s flu season and everyone feels like crap. But what’s happening this week feels like it could, in retrospect, knock on wood!, be the moment that a long, long, grueling hill was crested. After all, it’s nearly spring and the light is lasting a little longer every day.

Today’s meter is creeping upward.

Impeach-O-Meter: 50 percent.