The Impeach-O-Meter is a wildly subjective and speculative daily estimate of the likelihood that Donald Trump leaves office before his term ends, whether by being impeached (and convicted) or by resigning under threat of same.
On Tuesday night, the Impeach-O-Meter ticked up because it felt like it should tick up. Today, we have the data to back up the feelings:
• Donald Trump’s approval rating is as low as it’s ever been in FiveThirtyEight’s poll aggregator—36.6 percent.
• One particular Monmouth University poll finds that POTUS’ support has dropped from 39 percent to 14 percent among independent female voters since September. An obvious possible reason for this: The attention that the Harvey Weinstein fallout—and Trump’s endorsement of Roy Moore—has refocused on the sexual assault allegations against Trump himself.
• Breakdowns of the results from Alabama tell a now-familiar story: Democrats, especially black voters, turned out in big numbers, while Republicans continued to lose young people and the suburban middle class.
It’s bad for the GOP right now, and the party’s current priorities—passing an unpopular tax bill and attacking the special counsel investigation, which Americans at least until recently believed to be legitimate by a wide margin—don’t seem likely to help matters.
The meter is stable today, like AMERICA.
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