The Impeach-O-Meter is a wildly subjective and speculative daily estimate of the likelihood that Donald Trump leaves office before his term ends, whether by being impeached (and convicted) or by resigning under threat of same.
Update, 8 p.m.: Ross has indeed issued a “clarification”—he now says Trump told Flynn to get in touch with Russia after the 2016 election but before the January inauguration. This means ABC’s story no longer contradicts Trump officials’ claims about campaign contacts with Russia or suggests that Trump is being investigated personally for potential collusion acitivities. (Contacts with foreign officials during the transition are not illegal in and of themselves.)
Original post, 5:22 p.m.: So, Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to a single charge of lying to the FBI and is cooperating with special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. That’s big news on its own, but would be especially big if, as ABC’s Brian Ross reported Friday, Flynn is ready to testify that Donald Trump told him to establish communication with Russian officials during the 2016 campaign.
This would blow up about a hundred Trump camp denials that there was coordinated high-level campaign contact with Russia, and would suggest that Russia-related actions personally undertaken by Trump in 2016 (as opposed to merely the actions of his top lieutenants and/or family members) are under law enforcement scrutiny.
But, but, but: Ross issued his report this morning, and no other outlet has yet confirmed it. He also has a history of reporting breaking news that doesn’t turn out to be true. At this point, the only person who knows whether Brian Ross’s report is accurate is Michael Flynn.
Well, Michael Flynn and his attorneys. And Robert Mueller and the prosecutors who work for him. And probably other people who work in a support staff capacity for those individuals. The point is that we don’t know yet. Or do we? (We don’t.)
Today’s meter is up one point because it’s trying not to get ahead of itself.