The Slatest

Trump Has “Almost Certainly” Lost Nevada, as Latino Turnout Surges in Key States

Hillary Clinton greets early voters near West Miami City Hall on Nov. 5, 2016 in West Miami, Florida.

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Donald Trump is campaigning in Nevada on Saturday, but data is suggesting the state is a lost cause for the Republicans as a whole. Trump was already facing a seriously uphill battle in Nevada anyway, but “now he needs a Miracle in Vegas on Election Day … to turn this around,” according to KTNV political analyst Jon Ralston, who said Republicans “almost certainly lost” the state on Friday. What happened? Quite simply, a lot of Latinos turned out to vote early in Clark County, which is home to Las Vegas and more than two-thirds of Nevada’s active voters.

The record-breaking number of early voters means that Democrats have a firewall of around 73,000 ballots in the state, which is larger than the advantage that President Obama had in 2012, when he won the state by almost 7 points. Without Nevada, Trump’s possible path to the presidency narrows greatly.

Nevada is hardly alone, as early voting by Latinos has also increased in Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. In Florida, which, as usual, is one of the key battleground states, early turnout by Hispanic voters has soared 129 percent from 2008, reports CNN. Significantly, lots of these voters appear to be people who don’t generally get to the polls. Close to one-third of the Latino voters who cast their ballot by Friday had never voted in an election before. That’s significant, because it suggests that at least some of the early voting is due to new voters who are more likely to vote Democrat. If Clinton wins Florida, it would “make a Trump win almost impossible,” notes FiveThirtyEight.

Read more Slate coverage of the 2016 campaign.