This is it. After a long year of seemingly endless polling, the final batch of polls before Election Day on Tuesday are coming in and they pretty much deliver good news to Hillary Clinton. Although Donald Trump also likely has a few isolated reasons to celebrate.
Nationally, the polls give a slim advantage to Hillary Clinton. The new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll puts support for Clinton at 44 percent of likely voters and Trump at 40 percent while Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is at six percent. Although Clinton’s four-point lead is beyond the poll’s margin of error, it’s still a steep decline from the 11-point lead the Democratic candidate enjoyed last month shortly after the release of the Access Hollywood tape. As has been the case in much of the race, Clinton continues to hold strong leads among women, African-Americans and Latinos while Trump leads among men, whites without college degrees, and seniors.
The Washington Post/ABC tracking poll also gives Clinton a five-point lead over Trump although enthusiasm for both candidates remains lower than it was four years ago. While 55 percent of Clinton’s supporters say they’re backing the former secretary of State because they support her, that is only true of 43 percent of Trump’s voters. A majority of Trump supporters—51 percent—say they’re voting for the former reality television star because they oppose Clinton.
The final Politico/Morning Consult poll also shows Clinton leading but by a smaller three-point margin—45 percent to 42 percent. Incredibly, despite the seemingly endless campaign, nine percent of voters said they don’t know who they’ll be supporting on Election Day, meaning there is still time for both candidates to find more support.
On average, across 14 polls, Clinton’s lead is 1.9 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight.
While national polls appear to be giving some moderate bit of good news for Clinton, Trump does have reason to celebrate in state-specific polls. The best news for the Republican comes from Iowa, as the Des Moines Register polls shows Trump leading by a whopping seven points—46 percent to 39 percent. “The bigger surprise on election night would be if he lost Iowa, not that he won it,” said Amy Walter, national editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Two key battleground states—Florida and Ohio—are pretty even, according to the latest CBS News/YouGov polls. Trump is one point ahead of Clinton in Ohio—46 percent to 45 percent—while the two candidates are tied—45 percent-45 percent—in Florida. Both states are critical for Trump if he hopes to have a path to victory on Tuesday. The Columbus Dispatch agrees the race remains too close to call in Ohio with Clinton ahead by one measly percentage point—48 percent to 47 percent. “The poll results indicate that if the Clinton campaign can get young and minority voters to the polls, she almost certainly will win,” notes the Columbus Dispatch. “And a victory in Ohio would almost certainly end Trump’s hopes for the presidency.”
In New Mexico, meanwhile, Clinton continues to hold a relatively strong, five-point lead, according to the latest Albuquerque Journal poll. The poll also shows support for former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson has plunged to 11 percent—less than half of the 24 percent who backed him in late September. Clinton is also leading in Pennsylvania, where the latest Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows the Democratic candidate with a six-point advantage, which means things have not changed in the critical state since the last poll was published two weeks ago.
All in all, the state polls aren’t that great news for Clinton with New Mexico and Iowa polls in particular showing “a significant underperformance compared with President Obama,” writes FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver. Still, it doesn’t change the fact that Clinton remains “an Electoral College favorite.”