VoteCastr’s models currently show a tight race in Pennsylvania, with Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by roughly 125,000 votes as of 6:25 p.m. EST. That’s good for less than a three-point lead for Clinton, 47.7 percent to 45.1 percent, in a state Barack Obama won by more than five points over Mitt Romney four years ago.
One reason Clinton’s advantage in the state hasn’t matched Obama’s (at least yet anyway) is that she’s not running up the score in Philadelphia nearly as much as Obama did in 2012. The VoteCastr models estimate she is netting roughly 330,000 votes in Philadelphia County, home to the city of the same name, which is the fifth largest in the nation and the largest in any swing state. By comparison, Obama beat Romney by nearly a half-million votes in Philadelphia County four years ago.
The Clinton campaign made Philadelphia a priority in the final days of the campaign. Clinton was joined by her husband, Bill, as well as President Obama and Michelle Obama for a Monday night rally there featuring Bruce Springsteen. She also caught a break when a local transit strike was settled earlier that same day, removing the risk that many of the city’s poorer voters wouldn’t be able to make it to the polls.
Still, while Clinton doesn’t seem to be matching Obama’s performance in Philadelphia, her advantage there is at least offsetting Trump’s in other, more rural parts of the country. The GOP nominee’s combined advantage in all 10 of his best counties is netting him less than an estimated 200,000 total votes over Clinton.