Update, 12:20 p.m.: Sweet mother of God.
The caveats that always apply still apply: That’s just one poll, and it happens to be one that’s been friendly to Clinton. (It had her up by 6 the previous time it came out.) On the other hand: Yowza! (The last time someone won a presidential election by 11 or more points was 1984.)
Original post, 11:43 a.m.: There’s an old saying in politics: “Don’t get caught on tape a month before the general election bragging to an Access Hollywood host that you can get away with grabbing random women’s genitals.” And it turns out that at least in this case the conventional wisdom is true: It is bad to get caught on tape a month before the general election bragging to an Access Hollywood host that you can get away with grabbing random women’s genitals. There are two national polls out that were taken partly after the Friday leak of the Trump “grab them by the pussy” tape, and both show Hillary widening her lead:
- A four-way Economist/YouGov poll taken “mostly” after the publication of the Trump tape, on Friday and Saturday, has Clinton’s lead increasing from 3 points to 6 points.
- Rasmussen’s three-day rolling-average poll—which includes Thursday, Friday, and Sunday—has Clinton increasing her lead over Trump from 1 point to 7 points over the weekend in a four-way race. It’s her largest lead over him in Rasmussen’s survey.
Combine these results with a debate that was at best a draw even considering the very low expectations we have for his performances, and it’s starting to look like Donald Trump might not become president of the United States. (Via the electoral college, at least. A Hannity-led military coup is always a possibility.)