Somewhere in Pennsylvania, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton smiles a cautious smile.
All right: We do not actually know that that is what she’s doing. But we can imagine it might be so because the first post–Democratic National Convention poll shows Clinton 15 points ahead of her political rival, Republican nominee Donald Trump.
The poll comes from RABA Research, a bipartisan polling firm, which conducted an online nationwide survey the Friday following the convention.
Among likely voters, Clinton is now polling at 46 percent; Donald Trump, 31 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson’s polling at 7 percent; the Green Party’s Jill Stein, 2. (The day after the Republican National Convention, RABA had Clinton and Trump at 39 and 34, respectively.)
“After closing the gap to single digits last week, Trump’s post-convention bounce has disappeared,” said RABA Research’s John Del Cecato, a Democratic partner with the firm. “While Trump continues to struggle to consolidate support within his own party, Clinton has a sizable lead among independents, and is even peeling off a small slice of Republican voters.”
This is but one poll, and there will surely be more to come in the 100 days between now and Election Day. Its significance comes from the fact that it is the first taken entirely after the DNC.
For its reliability, we turn, as ever, to Nate Silver.