The Slatest

# Here’s Just How Bad the Post–New York Delegate Math Looks for Bernie

Hillary Clinton posted a 15-point win in New York on Tuesday, a performance that came with victories of both the moral and mathematical variety. Bernie Sanders is promising to fight on—perhaps even all the way to the convention—but a close look at the numbers suggests that the Democratic race is now all over but the shouting.

Let’s crunch some numbers.

(A note on my methodology: I’m working off estimates from the Associated Press, which has yet to allocate the bulk of Democratic delegates from Washington state, where Bernie beat Hillary by about 45 points last month. That means these numbers may be slightly too kind to Clinton, though the back-of-the-envelope math still paints a very dark picture for Sanders.)

Here’s what the overall delegate count (including superdelegates) looks like as of Wednesday morning:

• Hillary Clinton has 1,930 delegates, or 81 percent of the 2,383 needed to win the nomination
• Bernie Sanders has 1,189 delegates, or 50 percent of the 2,383 needed to win the nomination

There are 1,646 total delegates yet to be allocated:

• Clinton needs 28 percent of them to reach 2,383
• Sanders needs 73 percent of them to reach 2,383

The Sanders campaign continues to believe that the majority of the Clinton-backing superdelegates will eventually change their mind. While I can’t imagine that happening—these delegates, remember, are part of the Democratic establishment by definition—but for the sake of argument, here’s where things stand if you remove those party officials and elected leaders from the equation and just look at pledged delegates won by each candidate to date:

• Clinton has 1,428 pledged delegates—60 percent of the 2,383 needed to secure the nomination, and 70 percent of the 2,027 needed to claim a majority of all pledged delegates.
• Sanders has 1,151 pledged delegates—48 percent of the 2,383 needed to secure the nomination, and 57 percent of the 2,027 needed to claim a majority of all pledged delegates.