The Trump Apocalypse Watch is a subjective daily estimate, using a scale of one to four horsemen, of how likely it is that Donald Trump will be elected president (thus triggering an apocalypse in which we all die).
The news in the past 24 hours or so has been pretty good for those worried about a Trump presidency.
One big reason to believe that Trump can’t win this November is that the United States’ electorate is no longer mostly comprised of white men—and, among groups besides white men, Trump is very unpopular. Here’s some March 8 Wall Street Journal/NBC poll data on the subject:
That first number is particularly relevant right now since Trump and certain of his supporters have spent the last news cycle making truly petty and despicable comments about Heidi Cruz’s appearance. (Obviously all people can be offended by Trump’s insinuation that Heidi Cruz is ugly, but one imagines that it will resonate particularly negatively with women.) If you’re worried about a Trump presidency, one of the worst things that could happen is Trump moderating his persona—convincing a general election audience that he’s really a nice guy, not the obnoxious caricature they’ve seen on the news. While he may well still try to pull off such a pivot, it’s clearly not happening yet, which is why we’re downgrading today’s threat level from two horsemen to …
See you next week!