The Slatest

Monday’s Polls Can’t Decide Between “LOL Rubio” and “Rubio Comeback???” Storylines

Marco Rubio at the Republican presidential debate in Detroit on Thursday.

Geoff Robins/AFP/Getty Images


Polls! Sometimes they say one thing, sometimes they say another. Up, down—you never know what will happen next in the Wild World of Public Opinion Surveys. To wit, Monday’s news as regards one Marco Antonio Rubio of Florida.

In Ohio, he’s down, and it’s bad!

But in Florida, he’s up (sort of), and it’s good! From the Weekly Standard:

A new Monmouth University poll conducted from March 3 to March 6 shows Donald Trump leading Marco Rubio in Florida 38 percent to 30 percent, with Ted Cruz in third at 17 percent and John Kasich in fourth at 10 percent. The most surprising result from the Monmouth survey is that Rubio has a big lead over Trump among those who have already voted: “Rubio actually leads Trump by 48% to 23% among the nearly 1-in-5 voters who have already cast their ballots in this ‘early vote’ state. Trump has a 42% to 26% lead among those who have yet to vote.”

If true, the early vote numbers are encouraging news for Rubio.

The Washington Post has a more detailed Florida breakdown here.

In the big picture, Rubio is still well behind where FiveThirtyEight projects he’d need to be right now delegatewise to win the nomination. But you never know what the next poll will say—that’s the fun of the game!

Read more Slate coverage of the GOP primary.