The Slatest

Trump Is Probably Going to Win Michigan Today Despite Some Kasich Chatter

John Kasich and Donald Trump at a Republican presidential debeate in Greenville, South Carolina on Feb. 13, 2016.

Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

There are three Republican primaries today, all using various proportional delegate allocation rules: Michigan (59 delegates), Mississippi (40 delegates), and Idaho (32 delegates). (There are also 19 delegates at stake in Hawaii’s caucus.) Donald Trump is generally leading the polls in all three states; there has, however, been some John Kasich-friendly news in recent days. From the New York Times’ campaign blog:

According to a new Monmouth University poll, 36 percent of likely Republican primary voters support Mr. Trump in Michigan, with Senator Ted Cruz trailing at 23 percent and Mr. Kasich in third with 21 percent. Senator Marco Rubio is at the back of the pack with 13 percent support.

While Mr. Trump’s lead is significant, there were indications that Mr. Kasich is making a late push. Across four days of polling, Mr. Trump was dominant during the first two days, but the Ohio governor came within 6 points during the final two days.

Kasich also won a Michigan poll a few days ago:

John Kasich has inched ahead of Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump in Michigan’s primary race, a new ARG poll has found.

Kasich leads Trump 33 percent to 31 percent in the state, a major jump for the Ohio governor, who was at 17 percent in late February, the last time ARG surveyed Michigan. 

Is an upset possible? Sure, but Trump had 18 point leads in the two Michigan polls released after ARG’s—RealClearPolitics’ overall poll average has him ahead in the state by 12.3 points. FiveThirtyEight, meanwhile, says Trump has a 92 percent chance of winning Michigan. Today, more than likely, is going to be another good one for Trump.