The Slatest

It’s Only One Poll and All, but Wow Look at This Enormous Trump Lead in New Hampshire

Donald Trump points at a flag in Derry, New Hampshire, on Aug. 20, 2015.

Brian Snyder/Reuters

In a FiveThirtyEight world of enlightened polling analysis, we know that we shouldn’t overreact to any one given poll. We know that the New Hampshire Republican primary is still several months away. And we know that the margin of error on the CBS/YouGov poll of 610 likely New Hampshire GOP primary voters conducted Sept. 3–10 and released Sunday is 5.1 points.

But still, holy cats, look at Donald Trump’s lead up in this thing.

Screen shot/YouGov

That’s triple the next-closest candidate! (The light green part of the bar represents voters for whom the given candidate is a second choice.)

In the RealClearPolitics New Hampshire running average, Trump has a slightly less spectacular but still substantial lead.

Screen shot/Real Clear Politics

Trump! Trump! Trump.