The Total Predictability of Barack Obama’s Wisconsin Win

June 5, 2012. Scott Walker triumphs in a forced recall election. But an exit poll of the voters who saved him reveals that they support Barack Obama. If they were voting in the presidential race, they’d back Obama by 7 points, 51-44.

November 6, 2012. For understandable reasons, Republicans convince themselves that they can win Wisconsin. They ignore the Marquette poll, which nailed the recall, and says they’ll lose. They go to the polls.

Obama wins by 7 points, 53-46.