The Bachmann campaign sends out a pre-fundraising deadline e-mail appeal:
Our campaign’s rising poll numbers have not gone unnoticed. The latest Iowa poll has our campaign in second place, just behind Mitt Romney and ahead of Rick Perry.
Which poll? The e-mail doesn’t say, but the only new Iowa poll to come out recently is this one, from the American Research Group. Sure enough, it has Mitt Romney in first place with 21 percent, Bachmann in second place with 15 percent, and Perry in third with 14 percent. One problem: ARG conducted another Iowa poll in July. Back then, Bachmann was leading in Iowa with 21 percent, to 18 percent for Romney and 2 percent for the then-theoretical Perry campaign.
The poll of “600 likely Republican caucus-goers” with trendlines:
Mitt Romney - 21% (+3)
Michele Bachmann - 15% (-6)
Rick Perry - 14% (+12)
Ron Paul - 12% (-2)
Newt Gingrich - 8% (+0)
Herman Cain - 6% (+4)
Rick Santorum - 2% (-3)
Jon Huntsman - 1% (-2)
Buddy Roemer - 1% (+1)
So… maybe Bachmann is surging with some sub-group?
Among Tea Party supporters, Bachmann leads with 19% (down from 30% in July), Perry is at 14% (up from 3% in July), Gingrich and Paul are at 13% each, Herman Cain is at 10%, and Romney is at 6%.