Two or Three in Wisconsin?

ATLANTIC, Iowa – Back in June, at RightOnline, I heard the Wisconsin director of Americans for Prosperity say that the state’s recall elections would determine whether or not the left could effectively challenge Gov. Scott Walker. Win two Senate seats, and they get a moral victory that blunts their momentum. Win three, they win the State Senate.

With that in mind, David Catanese has a long expectations-setting memo from Democrats, predicting that two State Senate takeovers are within reach, but the third will be a slog. A Republican-leaning pollster agrees, giving the second-best-placed Democrat a margin-of-error lead.

But just look at those marginal districts!

We now have three full tracks of paid media up in both the Madison and Green Bay markets, which cover the district. This week each side has over 7,000 points of media up with total spending of over $1.8 million in the final 6 days alone.

That’s more money than is spent in some congressional campaigns, on a state Senate race! The deluge of conservative money has blunted the union money, just as it did in the Supreme Court race. But we remember how close that was.