Weigel

CNN Poll: Good News for Herman Cain and… uh… Rudy Giuliani

I don’t even know where to start with CNN’s new poll . You want the toplines? Don’t I keep telling you that national topline polling is useless in a contest like this? Okay, here are the toplines. With Rudy Giuliani, who has made absolutely no moves toward building a campaign (beyond accepting speaking slots in New Hampshire:

Giuliani    16%
Romney    15%
Palin    13%
Paul    12%
Cain    10%
Gingrich    8%
Bachmann    7%
Pawlenty    5%
Santorum    2%
Huntsman    1%
Johnson    1%
Roemer    *

Without Giuliani:

Romney    19%
Palin    15%
Paul    13%
Cain    11%
Gingrich    11%
Bachmann    7%
Pawlenty    5%
Huntsman    3%
Santorum    2%
Johnson    2%
Roemer    1%

Without Giuliani or Palin: 

Romney    21%
Paul    15%
Cain    13%
Gingrich    12%
Bachmann    9%
Pawlenty    5%
Huntsman    3%
Santorum    3%
Johnson    2%
Roemer    1%

In every permutation, Cain is in double digits. But this isn’t so useful. The crosstabs are more useful. Among “Tea Party supporters”:

Giuliani 16%
Cain 15%
Paul 12%
Palin 12%
Romney 10%
Bachmann 9%
Gingrich 7%
Pawlenty 6%
Santorum 3%
Huntsman 1%
Johnson 1%
Roemer * 

Aha! That’s what we suspected – calculated disinterest in Romney among the party’s most conservative voters. What to make of Pawlenty’s totally consistent numbers, even as he gets more media attention?