The Slate Poll

Where we ask readers to predict the future.

Welcome to Slate’s polling feature, in which we ask you to give us your predictions about stuff in the news. The idea here, elucidated in James Surowiecki’s  The Wisdom of Crowds and elsewhere, is that when it comes to forecasting the future, collective intelligence is often more accurate than expert opinion. See our complete polling archives below.

How Many Hurricanes?
The National Hurricane Center’s updated prediction—issued just this month—is for a 90 percent chance of an “
above-normal season,” with seven to 11 hurricanes. How many hurricanes will make landfall on the continental United States this season?This poll is closed. See reader predictions here. How much is a share of GM worth?
When GM returns to the stock exchange, you—meaning a private investor—will be able to purchase shares in GM. How much will a share of GM’s stock will be worth at the end of its first day back?This poll is closed. See reader predictions here.

Who Will Win the World Cup? Round 2.
Before the World Cup began, we asked you to choose which team would win it all. to According
the 12,064 Slate readers who voted, the most likely winner was Spain, followed by Brazil. Now that we’re down to the quarterfinals, we’re now giving everyone a do-over. The eight teams to choose from are actually the eight teams left.
This poll is closed.See reader predictions  here.

How Many Votes Will Elena Kagan get?
Elena Kagan’s confirmation hearings before the Senate judiciary committee are under way. With 57 Democrats, 41 Republicans, and two Independents in the Senate, how many votes will Kagan get?
This poll is closed. See reader predictions  here.

Tony Hayward: the face of the BP oil spill.

When will Tony Hayward lose his job?
When you’re in charge of the corporation responsible for the largest oil spill in history, it’s probably only a matter of time before you lose your job. Which leads to the question: When will Tony Hayward lose his?
This poll is closed. See reader predictions here.

Who Will Win the World Cup?
For our inaugural poll, we asked you to predict who would win the World Cup and offered you nine choices (the top seven-ranked teams, the United States, and “other.” We’ll update the list of choices as the tournament progresses, so check back before the quarterfinals for a new poll with the remaining teams.
This poll is closed. See reader predictions here.