“Hillary Deathwatch” Odds: Still 12.6 Percent

Not much changes in the last 24 hours before polls open in Indianaand North Carolina, keeping Clinton’s chances of winning the nominationat 12.6 percent .

So, a quick snapshot: Polls show tightening races in both Indiana and North Carolina .Except for the occasional outlier, Clinton leads by a consistent fiveto 10 points in the Hoosier state, while Obama stays ahead in the TarHeel state by a similar margin.

Remember how Obama started his ” countdown to the nomination ” yesterday? Clinton counters, as usual, with her own math .According to her calculations, the magic number to seal the nominationisn’t 2025, as the DNC has said. It’s 2208—the number you get if youinclude Florida and Michigan. It fits her argument that those statesshould be seated at the convention—which Howard Dean says will happen.

The problem is, superdelegates are still running from Hillary. Politico puts her ever-waning lead at 12 supers. Unless Clinton can make a big impression today—eitherwith a blowout victory in Indiana or with an exceptionally strongshowing among particular demographics—it’s hard to see her stemming theflow.

Read more at the Hillary Deathwatch .