Poll: Voters Don’t Think It’s Tied

There’s plenty of juiciness in the latest New York Times /CBS poll . Obama’s national lead is shrinking and his favorability rating is dropping, yet more Americans identify with his values than those of his opponents.

But there’s another interesting tidbit I’d point out. When asked who they expect to win the Democratic nomination, regardless of whom they support, 67 percent of respondents named Obama, compared to Clinton’s 19 percent. (The split is almost exactly the same among Democratic primary voters and all voters.) Only 13 percent said they don’t know—a pretty low number, given that none of us truly know.

Some of this you could chalk up to media coverage ( ahem ). But it also suggests voters know a lot more about the obstacles facing Clinton than you’d expect. When her campaign points out that the American people are split, they’re right. Obama leads by less than 1 percent of the total number of delegates popular vote.* And that’s a hard argument to refute without getting into the mathematical weeds , which makes it easy for her campaign to dismiss claims that Clinton can’t catch up.

It’s surprising, therefore, that most voters don’t see it as “tied.” Maybe we’re getting through after all.

More on this poll at Election Scorecard .  

*Fraysters rightly point out that Obama leads by more than 1 percent of the delegates. Turns out the Clinton memo was talking about overall votes. Read it here .