Keystone Bounce

Something we didn’t mention in today’s Deathwatch is a new Pennsylvania survey by Public Policy Polling that puts Obama barely ahead of Clinton, 45-43. (Read the PDF here .) That’s within the 2.8 percent margin of error. What isn’t statistically insignificant, however, is Obama’s 28-point spike since the last PPP poll two and a half weeks ago.

As usual, remember that this is one poll, and could well be an outlier. But it re-raises the question of how much Clinton really needs to win by in order to “win” Pennsylvania. Mark Halperin puts the necessary margin at 10.5 percent. If true, then Obama’s gap-closing is doing a lot more than tying it up. Normally the Clinton camp would be able to fix this with a little expectations management – a simple shifting of the goal posts. But Pennsylvania was supposed to be Clinton country by a long shot, and it’s going to be hard to make people forget that. Move the goal posts any further and you’re in the bleachers.