The notion that Barack Obama has an insurmountable pledged delegate lead seems to have finally calcified. Check out this passage from today’s Wall Street Journal :
As of yesterday evening, Sen. Obama led Sen. Clinton 1,567 to 1,463 in the delegate count, according to the Associated Press, a gap that narrowed by only 12 delegates despite her wins Tuesday. Sen. Clinton can’t close that gap in the handful of primaries left , but she could narrow it by winning over superdelegates, who account for 20% of the delegate total. That, in turn, could deprive Sen. Obama of an outright victory and delay a nomination until the party’s August convention in Denver. [Emphasis added]
It’s true that Clinton is very, highly, extremely unlikely to close the pledged delegate gap. According to Slate ’s Delegate Calculator , she would need to win 63 percent of the remaining pledged delegates just to tie it up. But this is the first time I’ve seen a newspaper essentially say it’s impossible . Both candidates have won by that margin before, and a lot can happen in seven weeks to turn the tide. That said, the point still stands that Clinton pretty much needs superdelegates to win.
The question now is, how close does Hillary need to come to call it a tie?