Cracking the Nutmeg

Phew—at least Barack Obama won one state in the northeast. After losses in New Hampshire, Massachusetts, New York, and New Jersey, Obama knocked out a win in Connecticut. And while it was by only the slimmest of margins (looks like three percentage points as of now), it stops the bleeding up north.

On a local level, his win doesn’t mean much. The Nutmeg State awards nearly all of its delegates proportionately, so there isn’t much difference between Obama winning by three percentage points and Clinton winning by three percentage points. This becomes especially muddled once they start apportioning delegates by district, where Obama could end up losing if he didn’t spread his success throughout all districts.

But on a macro level, Obama’s campaign can harp on his Connecticut successes. The probably flawed exit polls hint at some good data for Obama: He won every age group except senior citizens. He performed admirably among women, pulling in 45 percent of the vote. Clinton won 38 percent of the male vote. The African-American population didn’t factor heavily into the state’s turnout, so Obama held his own without his base. Plus, it was a closed primary state, which means independent votes weren’t a factor.

At this point, though, it’s all about bragging rights. A win isn’t necessarily a win. An edge in a state’s delegates, though, is.