Analysis Oct. 22, 10:30 a.m.: Mason-Dixon’s polls of 13 battleground states show Bush winning several states by 5 to 10 points but Kerry winning no state by more than 1 point—not even Michigan, where a Republican survey had him 8 points up. Our examination of the party breakdowns suggests that the new polls overstate Bush’s strength in Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa. But in Florida, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Oregon, the warnings to Kerry are real.
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How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. The first table shows surveys in the most closely contested states. The second table shows surveys in states that are expected to go to one candidate but might be picked off by the other. In the left column, each state and its electoral votes are marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading in that state (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and with what degree of certainty. Slateawards electoral votes based on our poll analysis, which appears in the right-hand column. We color a state gray if it’s likely to split its electoral votes. New polls are highlighted in yellow. (A) means a poll was automated. (O) means it was online. (D) means the polling firm is Democratic; (R) means the firm is Republican.
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The other tables below track national surveys. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush’s performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.
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Tightest States
State
Bush
Kerry
Nader
Margin
Dates
Sponsor/Pollster
Slate’s Call
FL (27)
48
47
1
3.5
10/15-19
Quinnipiac
Bush iffy. He leads narrowly in two of the three conventional polls and two of the three unconventional polls in the last two weeks. The two contrary surveys show Kerry ahead by just 1 point. The party breakdown in Mason-Dixon’s poll, which has Bush up 3, matches the ratio of Democrats to Republicans in statewide voter registration. On balance, the numbers suggest that Bush is ahead. But the pattern still isn’t as consistent for him here as it is for Kerry in Pennsylvania.(Read Slate’s dispatch from Florida.)
50.1
48.9
0.3
2.1
10/13-18
Zogby/WSJ (O)
49
50
N/A
4
10/15-17
SurveyUSA (A)
48
45
N/A
4
10/14-16
Mason-Dixon
44
45
2
4
10/10-15
Univ. of North Florida
49
45
1
3
10/12-14
Strategic Vision (R)
49
46
1
4
10/8-14
Rasmussen (A)
48
48
1
4
10/4-10
Washington Post
49
44
1
3
10/4-6
Strategic Vision
48
44
3
4
10/4-5
Mason-Dixon
51
44
N/A
3.7
10/1-5
Quinnipiac
47
49
N/A
4
10/2-5
American Research Group
49.1
49.5
0.5
2.2
9/30-5
Zogby/WSJ (O)
51
46
N/A
3.8
10/1-3
SurveyUSA (A)
IA (7)
51
45
1
3.8
10/18-20
SurveyUSA (A)
Bush likely. Mason-Dixon gives him a 6-point lead. That’s 4 points bigger than any conventional poll has shown, and the party breakdown in this poll is 2 to 3 points to the right of both statewide registration and the 2000 VNS exit poll. Still, an adjustment for party leaves Bush ahead, as the earlier Trib poll suggests. No conventional October poll favors Kerry, and SurveyUSA, which had a dead heat two weeks ago, agrees that Bush has gained. We’re taking this one out of the iffy column.
47.9
51.1
0.4
4.1
10/13-18
Zogby/WSJ (O)
49
43
1
4
10/15-18
Mason-Dixon
47
47
2
4
10/10-12
American Research Group
49
46
1
3
10/9-11
Strategic Vision (R)
47
45
1
4.4
10/8-11
Chicago Tribune
46
50
N/A
5.0
9/27-10/10
Rasmussen (A)
48
47
N/A
3.9
10/4-6
SurveyUSA (A)
44.5
51.1
0.2
4.1
9/30-10/5
Zogby/WSJ (O)
ME (4)
45
51
N/A
3.9
10/17-19
SurveyUSA (A)
Kerry breathes easier. SurveyUSA has him up 6. That’s a steady 7-point gain for him over the past month. It’s an automated poll, but we see no reason not to trust such polls for trend data. Let’s reevaluate. The evidence that Kerry’s lead is below 4 is now thin and old. So it now looks like he’ll take the second CD and all 4 EVs.(Read Slate’s dispatch from Maine.)
47
49
N/A
3.9
10/3-5
SurveyUSA (A)
42
39
4
5
9/23-27
Strategic Mktg Svs.
47
46
N/A
4
9/20-22
SurveyUSA (A)
42
45
3
4
9/10-23
Critical Insights
44
48
4
4
9/8-10
American Research Group
MN (10)
47
45
2
4
10/15-18
Mason-Dixon
Kerry likely. Mason-Dixon hasn’t published its party breakdown here, but its breakdowns in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan were all more Republican than the 2004 exit polls in those states. We’re dubious of the numbers for that reason and because Kerry has led in every previous conventional poll since mid-September, including one by a Republican firm a week ago. But it’s not out of the question that a 2-point Kerry lead became a 2-point Bush lead in that time, so we’ll keep an eye on it.(Read Slate’s dispatch from Minnesota.)
47
47
N/A
4.5
10/11-17
Rasmussen (A)
45
47
1
3
10/12-14
Strategic Vision (R)
43
48
2
3.4
10/9-11
Star-Tribune
43
45
2
4.4
10/8-11
Chicago Tribune
43
50
1
3
10/2-4
Hart Research (D)
NV (5)
52
45
N/A
4
10/16-18
SurveyUSA (A)
Bush likely. He has led in every conventional poll.(Read Slate’s dispatch from Nevada.)
52
42
N/A
4
10/15-18
Mason-Dixon
50
46
N/A
4
10/1-3
SurveyUSA (A)
48
44
2
4
9/20-28
BR&S/Las Vegas Sun
47
45
N/A
5
9/23
Rasmussen (A)
52
43
1
5
9/18-21
Gallup
NH (4)
47
46
1
4
10/16-19
American Research Group
Kerry iffy. We checked Mason-Dixon’s party breakdown to see whether it matches the 2000 exit poll. It does. ARG has Bush up 1. Zogby has Kerry up 5, but that’s online. Rasmussen has Kerry up 2, but that’s automated. Research 2000 has Kerry up 4, but that’s a week old. That leaves Suffolk as the only conventional poll to show a Kerry lead in the last week. The average of October polls still tilts to Kerry, but one more conventional survey on Bush’s side will probably move this state to his column.
47
49
N/A
4.5
10/18
Rasmussen (A)
48
45
1
4
10/15-18
Mason-Dixon
41
46
1
4.9
10/14-17
Suffolk Univ.
46.0
51.1
1.1
4.3
10/13-18
Zogby/WSJ (O)
45
49
2
4
10/12-14
Research 2000
47
47
1
4
10/3-5
American Research Group
43.9
50.5
1.7
4.1
9/30-10/5
Zogby/WSJ (O)
42
49
1
4
10/3-4
Franklin Pierce
50
45
1
4.3
9/27-10/3
UNH Granite Poll
NM (5)
46
48
1
4
10/16-18
American Research Group
Kerry iffy. This is Mason-Dixon’s biggest shocker, a 5-point lead for Bush. Is it real? The survey’s party breakdown is to the right of statewide registration but to the left of the 2000 exit poll. Accordingly, we think it’s valid confirmation of Gallup. That leaves the candidates 2-2 among conventional October polls. For now, we’ll let Kerry’s 9-point margin in the Zogby online survey break the tie. But the Albuquerque Journal poll is getting old. Kerry needs fresh confirmation of his lead, or this state will slip away.(Read Slate’s dispatch from New Mexico.)
49
45
N/A
4
10/15-18
Mason-Dixon
44.1
53.6
1.0
4.3
10/13-18
Zogby/WSJ (O)
50
47
2
4
10/12-14
CNN/USA
42.5
53.9
1.7
4.2
9/30-10/5
Zogby/WSJ (O)
43
46
2
3
10/1-4
Albuquerque Journal
45
49
1
4
10/2-4
Hart Research (D)
OH (20)
47
48
1
3.5
10/17-20
CNN/USA
Kerry iffy. Gallup agrees Kerry is barely ahead here, and our review of Mason-Dixon’s party breakdown shows it is 5 points to the right of the 2000 exit poll. Fox doesn’t publish its party breakdown. Accordingly, we’re growing skeptical of the evidence against the previous pattern of Kerry leading narrowly in conventional surveys.(Read Slate’s dispatch from Ohio.)
49
44
N/A
3.5
10/17-18
FOX News
46
45
N/A
4
10/15-18
Mason-Dixon
47
49
N/A
3.8
10/16-17
Survey USA (A)
47
50
N/A
3.5
10/14-17
ABC News
47
47
N/A
4
10/12-18
Rasmussen (A)
46
48
N/A
3.6
10/11-17
Ohio Poll
49
47
N/A
4
10/7-13
Rasmussen (A)
51
43
1
3
10/9-11
Strategic Vision (R)
45
49
N/A
4.4
10/8-11
Chicago Tribune
47
48
1
4
10/4-6
American Research Group
48
49
N/A
3.6
10/2-4
Survey USA (A)
48
47
N/A
4
9/25-10/2
Rasmussen (A)
PA (21)
45
46
N/A
4
10/15-18
Mason-Dixon
Kerry likely. He leads barely but consistently in all nonpartisan October polls.(Read Slate’s dispatch from Pennsylvania.)
45
51
N/A
4
10/15-17
SurveyUSA (A)
46
47
1
4
10/6-12
Rasmussen (A)
46
45
1
3
10/9-11
Strategic Vision (R)
47
49
N/A
2.7
10/9-11
Quinnipiac
46
48
1
4
10/4-6
American Research Group
47
49
N/A
3.6
10/3-5
SurveyUSA (A)
43
50
N/A
4
10/1-4
WHYY/WCU
43
49
N/A
4
9/30-10/4
Keystone
47
47
N/A
4
9/25-10/1
Rasmussen (A)
WI (10)
50
44
3
4
10/16-19
CNN/USA/Gallup
Bush iffy. Yesterday we shifted this state to Bush because among the three polls taken in the last week, one had a tie, the second had Bush up 1, and the third had Bush up 6. Today Mason-Dixon calls the race a tie. The survey’s party breakdown is 5 points to the right of the 2000 exit poll, so we think it suggests that with real turnout, Kerry would win the state. But we don’t move states based on such speculation. Kerry will have to show us fresh polls with him in the lead.
47
47
N/A
2
10/16-19
American Research Group
48
47
2
4
10/14-19
U of Minnesota
45
45
1
4
10/15-18
Mason-Dixon
47.5
51.3
0.2
3.3
10/13-18
Zogby/WSJ (O)
47
48
N/A
4.5
10/14
Rasmussen (A)
45
48
N/A
5
10/4-13
Wisconsin Public Radio
49
44
2
3
10/9-11
Strategic Vision (R)
43
47
2
4.4
10/8-11
Chicago Tribune
49
46
2
4
10/3-5
CNN/USA/Gallup
48.1
50.6
0.1
3.4
9/30-10/5
Zogby/WSJ (O)
44
48
1
5
10/3-5
Lake Snell Perry (D)
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Possible Upsets
State
Bush
Kerry
Nader
Margin
Dates
Sponsor/Pollster
Slate’s Call
AZ (10)
54
43
N/A
4
10/17-19
Survey USA (A)
Bush pretty safe. Kerry’s debate surge brought him within 5 points, but that’s probably his high tide. (Read Slate’s dispatch from Arizona.)
47
40
N/A
4
10/18-19
Arizona Republic
49
44
N/A
5
10/7-11
NAU
55
41
N/A
4.1
10/5-7
Survey USA (A)
48
38
N/A
4.1
10/2-4
Arizona Republic
CO (9)
52
45
N/A
4.1
10/18-20
SurveyUSA (A)
Bush pretty safe. Latest poll indicates the ballot measure to split EVs will fail. Kerry’s debate surge brought him within 5 points, but that’s probably his high tide.(Read Slate’s dispatch from Colorado.)
50
45
N/A
4.5
10/18
Rasmussen (A)
51
45
1
4
10/14-17
CNN/USA/Gallup
47
42
3
4.9
10/13-14
Rocky Mountain News
52
44
N/A
4.1
10/5-7
Survey USA (A)
50
41
N/A
4
10/4-6
Mason-Dixon
49
49
1
5
10/3-6
CNN/USA
MI (17)
44
51
1
3.9
10/18-20
SurveyUSA (A)
Kerry looks pretty safe. Mason-Dixon has him up 1 in a survey whose party breakdown is a full 8 points to the right of the 2000 exit poll. SurveyUSA has him up 7. Both findings are consistent with previous October polls giving Kerry an average lead of 6.5. Even a Republican survey a week ago had Kerry up 8. We think the Detroit News poll is wrong.
46.9
42.7
1.2
5
10/18-19
Detriot News
46
47
N/A
4
10/15-18
Mason-Dixon
40
48
1
3
10/12-14
Strategic Vision (R)
43
48
2
4
10/11-13
Research 2000
46
49
N/A
5
10/6-12
Rasmussen (A)
42
52
N/A
3.9
10/4-6
Survey USA (A)
MO (11)
51
45
N/A
3.9
10/16-18
Survey USA (A)
Bush pretty safe. Mason-Dixon backs up SurveyUSA with a Bush lead of 5 to 6 points .(Read Slate’s dispatch from Missouri.)
49
44
N/A
4
10/15-18
Mason-Dixon
50.7
47.6
1.1
3
10/13-18
Zogby/WSJ (O)
49
47
N/A
3.8
10/2-4
Survey USA (A)
49.8
47.6
1.3
3
9/30-10/5
Zogby/WSJ (O)
51
45
N/A
5
9/22-10/5
Rasmussen (A)
50
44
N/A
4
9/16-19
American Research Group
48
41
1
4
9/14-16
Mason-Dixon
49
42
N/A
3.5
9/13-16
Research 2000
NJ (15)
43
51
N/A
3.8
10/16-18
Survey USA (A)
Kerry pulling away after his 5-point lead in one poll collapsed to a tie.
43
44
1
3
10/16-18
Strategic Vision (R)
45
49
1
3.5
10/14-17
Quinnipiac
38
51
N/A
N/A
10/14-17
Star-Ledger
46
46
2
4.5
10/8-14
FDU Public Mind
41
46
2
3
10/9-11
Strategic Vision (R)
43
48
N/A
4.5
10/7-11
FDU Public Mind
44
53
N/A
5
9/26-10/10
Rasmussen (A)
41
47
N/A
4.1
10/1-6
Star-Ledger
41
49
N/A
4.5
10/1-6
FDU Public Mind
46
49
2
3.8
10/1-4
Quinnipiac
45
50
N/A
3.8
10/1-3
Survey USA (A)
OR (7)
45
53
N/A
4
10/15-18
CNN/USA
Kerry possibly at risk. We blew off the Riley survey because Kerry led by 5 or more points in five of six October polls. Even Gallup has him up 8. But now Mason-Dixon finds him leading by just 1 point in a survey whose party breakdown matches statewide registration. It’s probably a blip, but this is no longer a locked-up state.(Read Slate’s dispatch from Oregon.)
46
47
N/A
4
10/15-18
Mason-Dixon
44
50
N/A
4
10/9-13
Research 2000
48
43
1
4.9
10/9-13
Riley Research
44
49
2
4
10/10-12
American Research Group
44
53
N/A
4
10/9-11
Survey USA (A)
VA (13)
50
46
N/A
3.9
10/16-18
Survey USA (A)
Bush too close for comfort. His 4-point lead in SurveyUSA is plausible, given the 6-point spread in both September polls.
50
50
N/A
5
9/14-27
Rasmussen (A)
49
43
1
4
9/24-27
Mason-Dixon
53
42
N/A
3.7
9/21-23
SurveyUSA (A)
49
43
N/A
4
9/12-14
American Research Group
WA (11)
44
52
N/A
5
10/6-19
Rasmussen (A)
Kerry safe. He has never trailed.(Read Slate’s dispatch from Washington.)
45
52
N/A
4.1
10/16-18
Survey USA (A)
44
49
2
3
10/4-6
Strategic Vision (R)
43
54
N/A
4
10/2-4
Survey USA (A)
43
50
N/A
5
9/10-23
Rasmussen (A)
WV (5)
48.6
45.8
0.7
4.4
10/13-18
Zogby/WSJ (O)
Bush pretty safe. Yesterday we put this state in the danger zone pending the first nonpartisan conventional poll of October. Now we’ve got that poll, and it shows Bush up by 5, contrary to Democratic and online surveys. He regains the presumption of safety.(Read Slate’s dispatch fromWest Virginia.)