Election Scorecard

Election Scorecard

Where the presidential race stands today.


If the Election Were Held Today
344 Electoral Votes
167 solid, 177 close
194 Electoral Votes
146 solid, 48 close

The following tables track the latest polls in the presidential race. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush’s performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be reelected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorableimpression of each candidate.

The fifth table shows the latest state polls and tallies the electoral votes for each candidate if those polls hold true on Nov. 2. Each poll has a margin of error based on its sample size. Pollsters consider a lead significant only if it is more than double the margin of error. If a candidate leads by more than twice the margin, we put that state’s electoral votes in his “solid” column. Otherwise, we put the votes in his “close” column.

Trial Heat Trend
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
50 42 3 3 9/12-16Registered CBS/New York Times  +1+1  Sept. 5-9
54 40 Sept. 13-15 Likely  Gallup N/A N/A N/A 
47 46 2.5 Sept. 11-14 Likely Pew Research-7 +8 Sept. 8-10 
47 48 Sept. 9-13 Likely  Harris   +7 Aug. 10-15 
47 4533.1 Sept. 12-14 Likely  Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research  -1Sept. 6-9 
5144 3.6 Sept. 8-12Likely ICR+5-2 Sept. 1-5
464633.5Sept. 7-12Likely IBD/TIPPN/AN/A 
494324Sept. 9-10Registered Newsweek-3+2 Sept. 2-3
524234Sept. 7-9Likely Time00 Aug. 31-Sept. 2
514613.5Sept. 7-9LikelyAPN/AN/A 
474333Sept. 7-8Likely Fox+4-1 Aug. 24-25

Bush Job Approval Trend
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
52 45 Sept. 13-15 Likely  Gallup-1  Sept. 3-5 
48444Sept. 9-10Registered Newsweek   Sept. 2-3
56413Sept. 7-9Registered Time+1-1 Aug. 31-
Sept. 2
49443Sept. 7-8Likely Fox-2+1 Aug. 24-25
52453Sept. 6-8Registered ABC/WP0-2 Aug. 26-29
50433Sept. 6-8Registered CBS+4-2 July. 30-
Aug. 1
52464Sept. 3-5Registered CNN/USA+3-1Aug. 23-25

Re-Elect Trend
YesNo Margin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Yes No Since
50463Sept. 9-10RegisteredNewsweek-3+3 Sept. 2-3
52453Sept. 7-9RegisteredTime+3-3 Aug 31-
Sept. 2

Right Direction/Wrong Track Trend
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
46493Sept. 7-9Registered Time+1-1 Aug. 31-Sept. 2
44523Sept. 6-8Registered CBS+5-3 July 30-Aug. 1

Favorable/Unfavorable RatingBush TrendKerry Trend 
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
47/38 31/42 3 Sept. 12-16Registered CBS/New York Times  0-1-1 -1 Sept. 5-9
55/44 51/44 Sept. 13-15 Likely  GallupN/A N/AN/A N/A N/A N/A 
49/46 51/40 2.5 Sept. 11-14 Registered  Pew Research-6 +6 +1 -4  Sept. 8-10 
52/4448/443Sept. 9-10Registered Newsweek-3+4+3-2 Sept. 2-3
54/3843/423Sept. 7-9Registered Time+9-7-10+13 Aug. 3-5
51/4346/443Sept. 7-8Likely Fox+1-1-2+5 Aug. 24-25
51/3936/424Sept. 6-8Registered ABC/WP+1-1-7+2 Aug. 26-29
47/3932/413Sept. 6-8Registered CBS+4-5-6+7 June 30-Aug.1
55/4453/434Sept. 3-5Registered CNN/USA+10+1+3Aug. 23-25

 Electoral Vote
AL573054Likely9/9-11 American Research Group9   
AK5633 4.3Registered6/23-30 Dittman Research3   
AZ5039N/A4Likely9/13-16 Knight Ridder10   
AR4847N/A4.2Likely8/20-22 Survey USA   
CA4152N/A3Registered9/11-13 American Research Group     55 
CO46454LikelySept. 9-11 American Research Group 9  
CT3845N/A3Registered8/12-17 Quinnipiac University     7
DE4648N/A4.4Registered8/16-21 Zogby Interactive   3 
DC            3
FL4844 23Registered8/26-28 Strategic Vision 27  
GA5538N/A3Registered8/26-28 Strategic Vision15   
HI415144Likely9/7-11 American Research Group   4 
ID59 30 Likely 9/8-10  American Research Group4   
IL3852N/A4Registered8/13-16 Market Shares Corp.     21
IN5438N/A4Likely9/7-9 Research 200011   
IA4847 3Likely9/13-15 Strategic Vision 7  
KS5739 N/A4.1 Registered3/3-4  Survey USA6   
KY5739N/A4Likely9/8-12 American Research Group8   
LA5336N/A4.1Registered8/31-9/2 Marketing Research9   
ME444844Likely9/8-10 American Research Group   4 
MD435224Likely9/7-9 American Research Group     10
MA2764 4Likely9/10-13 American Research Group     12
MI435014Registered9/10-13 CNN/USA Today/Gallup  17 
MN464414Likely9/11-14 Mason Dixon 10  
MS6130N/A5.8Registered4/5-21 Mississippi State Univ.6   
MO484114Likely9/13-16 Knight Ridder 11   
MT5333N/A4Registered5/24-26 Mason-Dixon3   
NE613024Likely9/9-12 American Research Group5   
NV504514Likely9/13-16 Knight Ridder 5  
NH494034Likely9/13-15 Mason-Dixon 4  
NJ4143N/A4.3Likely9/3-7 Star-Ledger/Eagleton  15 
NM4542N/A3Registered8/27-9/1 Research & Polling Inc. 5  
NY414742.6Registered9/7-12 Quinnipiac    31 
NC4845N/A4.9Registered8/8-11 Research 2000 15  
ND62 33 Likely 7-10  3   
OH494224Likely9/14-15 Mason-Dixon20  
OK6430N/A5Registered9/1-2 Westhill Partners7   
OR474524Likely9/10-13 American Research Group  7   
PA494624Likely9/9-12 ABC News 21  
RI305844Likely9/11-13 American Research Group     4
SC5442N/A4Registered9/7-9 Public Opinion Strategies8   
SD5839N/A4.4Registered8/24-26 Public Opinion Strategies3   
TX5734N/A3Registered8/9-26 Scripps Howard34   
UT642744Likely9/10-13 American Research Group5   
VT405044Likely9/9-12  American Research Group    3
VA4945N/A 3.7 Likely 8/20-22  Survey USA13     
WA4544N/A4Likely9/13-14 Mason-Dixon 11  
WV4448N/A4Registered7/26-28 American Research Group   5 
WI524415Likely9/9-12 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10  
WY65 29 4Likely9/9-11  American Research Group  3