Brow Beat

What’s More Likely: Weiner Resigning or Qaddafi Being Ousted?

At his teary-eyed press conference Monday afternoon, Rep. Anthony Weiner said he wouldn’t resign. But if the confessional-style presser was meant to give Weiner the last word, it’s done anything but. With increasingly embarrassing revelations emerging about the congressman’s extramarital sext-life, will Weiner reconsider his pledge to stay in office? Traders on the online prediction market Intrade were giving Weiner a 45 percent chance of resigning before the end of September, when Browbeat checked around 4 p.m. Tuesday. What’s 45 percent look like in context? According to other Intrade markets, the probability of Weiner resigning is:

But markets fluctuate, and Intrade’s predicted chance of Weiner’s resignation has already risen several times today. What odds do you give it?