The Build Back Better Act might be dead. Or maybe it’s just on life support. Nobody but Joe Manchin can say for sure. The West Virginia senator ambushed his party on Sunday by announcing he was a hard no on the bill, imperiling the core of the Biden administration’s domestic agenda. After the initial furious reaction, both the White House and Democrats in Congress have begun trying to rescue negotiations, but their chance of success is unclear.
One thing is quite certain, though: If the defibrillators fail and President Joe Biden can’t resuscitate a deal, it will be an absolute catastrophe for America’s attempts to combat global warming. The bill that House Democrats passed in November was not everything clean energy and environmental activists had hoped, since some of its most aggressive proposals to limit greenhouse gases were stripped to appease Manchin. But by providing hundreds of billions of dollars to speed up the country’s green transition, it would have been an absolutely crucial and historic step toward meeting the climate goals Biden announced when the U.S. rejoined the Paris accords earlier this year. Without it, the country is unlikely to come anywhere near those targets, even if in an abstract, technical sense they’d still be within reach.
“Let me put it this way. The U.S. can still achieve its [Paris commitments] through pathways that don’t require Build Back Better, which lean heavily on federal regulation and state action,” Anand Gopal, executive director of strategy and policy at the climate think tank Energy Innovation, told me. “But it will be damn hard.”
Here’s a simple way to think about the blow U.S. climate policy is facing. The Biden administration has pledged to reduce U.S. emissions 50 percent from 2005 levels by 2030. Under the House legislation, the United States would cut its carbon footprint by 44 percent, according to an analysis by the REPEAT Project at Princeton’s Zero Lab. But under current law, the U.S. would only cut emissions by 27 percent—not even in the ballpark.
It is possible that the Princeton analysis is overly optimistic about the impact Build Back Better would have. For instance, it factors in reductions from a fee on methane included in the House bill, which looked like it would be pared back in any final version. But almost every analysis of the bill’s key pieces has found that it would have a dramatic impact and potentially put our Paris targets within reach, thanks to roughly $325 billion of green energy, electric vehicle, and other tax credits that anchor its climate section (the bill’s total spending on climate amounts to $555 billion). Those subsidies would bring down the cost of a new solar or wind plant by 30 percent and shave thousands from the price of an EV, making clean tech even more competitive than it already is.
Without Build Back Better, the Biden administration will be left to rely almost exclusively on its regulatory powers to curb emissions. This is the strategy that some progressives already seem to be preparing for. “Biden needs to lean on his executive authority now,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tweeted earlier this week. “He has been delaying and underutilizing it so far. There is an enormous amount he can do on climate, student debt, immigration, cannabis, health care, and more.”
There are certainly important ways Biden can flex his executive authority on climate. His administration has already announced a strict new rule on methane leaks and tougher fuel economy standards that it could ratchet up again in the future. States could also contribute significantly if, for instance, California follows through on its promise to ban the sale of new gas-powered cars by 2035.
But there are legal and political limits to what Biden can accomplish through regulation alone. The Environmental Protection Agency is often required by statute to weigh the cost to consumers and industry when crafting new rules. And the administration may blanch at pursuing aggressive new regulations on power plants that might increase electricity prices at a moment voters are worried about inflation (and are as sensitive to gas prices as ever).
The tax credits in Build Back Better were meant to lower both of these hurdles by making green technology less expensive. Without them, Biden has less room to be bold. “All of these regulatory actions and state actions are more politically feasible and easier when there’s half a trillion dollars in subsidies to smooth the way,” John Larsen, head of energy systems research at the Rhodium Group, told me. “Without those subsidies, maybe executive actions could make up some of the tons [of CO2 reductions] you don’t get from Build Back Better. But it’s a very big ask from the executive branch to deliver all of the tons without the financial support.” Congress’ failure to legislate will also make it harder for Biden to regulate.
And that’s before you factor in the Supreme Court. In 2016, the justices stayed President Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, suggesting they were ready to hem in the administration on climate. Since then, the court has moved further to right with a 6-to-3 conservative majority, and its members have shown an interest in rolling back the power of federal regulators across the government. At the moment, the justices are preparing to hear a case, West Virginia v. EPA, in which they may decide the administration does not have the authority to limit emissions from power plants. In an absolute worst-case scenario, they could revive a version of the nondelegation doctrine, a pre–New Deal idea that would essentially hobble the entire structure of modern administrative government by holding that Congress simply can’t hand certain decision-making powers to executive agencies, which would kneecap the EPA’s authority on climate and other issues.
We might not get to that point. But it’s not unthinkable. “Everyone from me to my first-year law students is guessing what this court is going to do,” Nathan Richardson, a University of South Carolina law professor specializing in climate policy, told me. “It seems inclined to constrain the administrative state more broadly, and the sharp end of that spear is climate.”
Given that Biden’s ability to regulate carbon is limited and vulnerable to being struck down by an activist court, passing Build Back Better may be our last shot at serious climate policy for the next decade. One of the questions hanging over the negotiations is whether Manchin is actually open to a serious green energy plan or has simply pretended to be in order to run out the clock on negotiations. Before talks exploded, he reportedly made a counteroffer to the White House that included $500 billion in climate spending. But the specifics of what the money was for are unknown. Manchin is also tightly connected to the coal companies that dominate his state, still has a financial interest in the family coal brokerage on which he made his personal fortune, and has lately adopted the industry’s talking points criticizing Build Back Better’s energy section. It’s possible he simply doesn’t want a deal, in the end.
If Manchin is still open to something that looks roughly like Build Back Better’s climate plan, though, Democrats should be willing to give up a lot to get the deal. Because when it comes to the future of the planet, our plan B doesn’t look so promising.