On Monday, a left-leaning think tank analyzed Donald Trump’s new tax plan and found it would cost roughly $10.8 trillion over a decade, more or less cratering the government’s finances into fiery rubble while largely benefiting the rich. That estimate, however, did not account for any salubrious effects the proposal might have on economic growth. What happens when you do?
Today, the conservative Tax Foundation offered an answer. Without factoring in growth, it found that Trump’s plan would actually add $11.98 trillion to the 10-year deficit. Once the boost to growth that would result from slashing taxes is factored in, it would only cost $10.14 trillion … more or less cratering the government’s finances into fiery rubble.
Theoretically, this should be problematic for Trump, who claims his proposal wouldn’t add to the debt or deficit. But the funny thing is, I actually think he’ll run with this. Because his cuts are so, so huge, the Tax Foundation—which has great faith in the ability of tax reductions to spur the economy—says the plan will create 5.3 million extra jobs over 10 years. Jeb Bush’s own deficit-ballooning tax proposal—which Trump seems to have more or less grabbed, then doctored a bit by slashing rates further—would add a mere 2.7 million jobs, according to the think tank’s math. Marco Rubio’s preferred tax cuts, which once seemed completely laughable in their own right but appear almost quaint compared with the Donald’s, would add just 2.6 million. Thus, Trump can get on stage (or heck, run a TV ad) and brag that an established right-leaning think tank believes his tax policy proposals will create twice as many jobs as his competitors’. I mean, it’s not as if his establishment-backed rivals have much standing to criticize him over fiscal responsibility. And if the short-fingered GOP front-runner needs another conservative celebrity endorsement, he can just quote this tweet from Grover Norquist. What better sell are you going to get than “Jobs. Jobs. Jobs.”?
So congratulations to Donald Trump, whose lightly sketched, semihomemade, and wholly absurd tax plan seems perfectly suited to satiate the needs of a Republican primary electorate. The man is a wonder.