New Bureau of Economic Analysis data came out today showing a shrinking trade deficit in December, and not just a shrinking trade deficit, but a shrinking trade deficit with rising exports. The November trade deficit was also revised slightly downward. The implication of this is that when the fourth quarter GDP numbers are revised, the slight shrinkage in output is likely to turn into a slight uptick.
I wouldn’t take that forecast to the bank all on its own, but the revised employment numbers from November and December also don’t seem consistent with a shrinking fourth quarter economy. Nor does the general uptick in public approval of the president, or other indirect indicators of the national mood.