As everyone knows, tomorrow is the end of the world which provides an interesting test case for the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. Obviously the end of human existence is something that has implications for a wide range of commodities and financial assets, but I think we can probably see it best with a simple glance at year-to-date price of next month’s West Texas Intermediate crude oil.
If you think there isn’t going to be a next month there’s obviously no reason to buy this particular asset. What you want to do is sell sell sell so you can have an amazing cocaine-fueled party tonight or finally take that last-minute trip to see the Great Pyramid of Giza that you’ve always meant to do. But while the WTI contracts are certainly trading lower than they were in the first half of the year, things have hardly collapsed and there’s actually been a rally over the past several days.