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readme    Policy made plain.

The Parties and the Economy IV: Reagan and Lag

By Michael Kinsley

1930-2006
1930-2006 (lag)
1981-2006
1981-2006 (lag)
Summary


Taxes   Spending   Deficit   "Bureau-crats" National Debt Inflation    Jobs   Growth  
  Federal government receipts as % of GDP change in Federal receipts as % of GDP Federal gov't outlays as % of GDP change in Federal outlays as % of GDP defense outlays as % of total outlays change in non-defense outlays as % of GDP Surplus(+)/ Deficit(-) as % of GDP change in surplus/deficit as % of GDP federal civilian employees (000) change in civilian employees federal debt held by public as % of GDP change in fed debt held by public as % GDP Consumer Price Index (1984=100) change in consumer price index total employed (thousand) change in total employed ("jobs created," thousands) Real GDP (billions of year 2000 dollars) % change in real GDP President House Senate Control of Congress (S=split) Control of both branches
1981 19.60 22.20 22.20 (2.60) 1,159.00 1,159.00 25.80 90.90 100,397.00 #REF! 5,291.70 D D D D D
1982 19.10 (0.50) 23.10 0.90 24.20 0.24 (4.00) (1.40) 1,121.00 1,122.40 28.60 2.80 96.50 5.60 99,526.00 (871.00) 5,189.30 (1.94) R D R S S
1983 17.50 (1.60) 23.50 0.40 25.30 0.04 (6.00) (2.00) 1,131.00 1,133.00 33.10 4.50 99.60 3.10 100,834.00 1,308.00 5,423.80 4.52 R D R S S
1984 17.40 (0.10) 22.20 (1.30) 25.90 (1.10) (4.80) 1.20 1,127.00 1,125.80 34.00 0.90 103.90 4.30 105,005.00 4,171.00 5,813.60 7.19 R D R S S
1985 17.70 0.30 22.90 0.70 25.90 0.52 (5.10) (0.30) 1,145.00 1,145.30 36.40 2.40 107.60 3.70 107,150.00 2,145.00 6,053.70 4.13 R D R S S
1986 17.40 (0.30) 22.40 (0.50) 26.80 (0.57) (5.00) 0.10 1,108.00 1,107.90 39.40 3.00 109.60 2.00 109,597.00 2,447.00 6,263.60 3.47 R D R S S
1987 18.40 1.00 21.60 (0.80) 27.30 (0.69) (3.20) 1.80 1,142.00 1,140.20 40.70 1.30 113.60 4.00 112,440.00 2,843.00 6,475.10 3.38 R D R S S
1988 18.20 (0.20) 21.30 (0.30) 26.50 (0.05) (3.10) 0.10 1,172.00 1,171.90 41.00 0.30 118.30 4.70 114,968.00 2,528.00 6,742.70 4.13 R D D D S
1989 18.40 0.20 21.20 (0.10) 25.80 0.07 (2.80) 0.30 1,162.00 1,161.70 40.60 (0.40) 124.00 5.70 117,342.00 2,374.00 6,981.40 3.54 R D D D S
1990 18.00 (0.40) 21.80 0.60 23.10 1.03 (3.90) (1.10) 1,216.00 1,217.10 42.00 1.40 130.70 6.70 118,793.00 1,451.00 7,112.50 1.88 R D D D S
1991 17.80 (0.20) 22.30 0.50 19.80 1.12 (4.50) (0.60) 1,230.00 1,230.60 45.30 3.30 136.20 5.50 117,718.00 (1,075.00) 7,100.50 (0.17) R D D D S
1992 17.50 (0.30) 22.10 (0.20) 20.70 (0.36) (4.70) (0.20) 1,274.00 1,274.20 48.10 2.80 140.30 4.10 118,492.00 774.00 7,336.60 3.33 R D D D S
1993 17.60 0.10 21.40 (0.70) 19.80 (0.36) (3.90) 0.80 1,266.00 1,265.20 49.40 1.30 144.50 4.20 120,259.00 1,767.00 7,532.70 2.67 R D D D S
1994 18.10 0.50 21.00 (0.40) 18.40 (0.03) (2.90) 1.00 1,235.00 1,234.00 49.30 (0.10) 148.20 3.70 123,060.00 2,801.00 7,835.50 4.02 D D D D D
1995 18.50 0.40 20.70 (0.30) 17.10 0.02 (2.20) 0.70 1,210.00 1,209.30 49.20 (0.10) 152.40 4.20 124,900.00 1,840.00 8,031.70 2.50 D D D D D
1996 18.90 0.40 20.30 (0.40) 16.20 (0.15) (1.40) 0.80 1,166.00 1,165.20 48.50 (0.70) 156.90 4.50 126,708.00 1,808.00 8,328.90 3.70 D R R R S
1997 19.30 0.40 19.60 (0.70) 16.10 (0.57) (0.30) 1.10 1,149.00 1,147.90 46.10 (2.40) 160.50 3.60 129,558.00 2,850.00 8,703.50 4.50 D R R R S
1998 20.00 0.70 19.20 (0.40) 15.50 (0.22) 0.80 1.10 1,163.00 1,161.90 43.10 (3.00) 163.00 2.50 131,463.00 1,905.00 9,066.90 4.18 D R R R S
1999 20.00 0.00 18.70 (0.50) 15.40 (0.40) 1.40 0.60 1,155.00 1,154.40 39.80 (3.30) 166.60 3.60 133,488.00 2,025.00 9,470.30 4.45 D R R R S
2000 20.90 0.90 18.40 (0.30) 15.70 (0.31) 2.40 1.00 1,127.00 1,126.00 35.10 (4.70) 172.20 5.60 136,891.00 3,403.00 9,817.00 3.66 D R R R S
2001 19.80 (1.10) 18.50 0.10 15.60 0.10 1.30 (1.10) 1,145.00 1,146.10 33.00 (2.10) 177.10 4.90 136,993.00 102.00 9,890.70 0.75 D R R R S
2002 17.90 (1.90) 19.40 0.90 16.50 0.58 (1.50) (2.80) 1,173.00 1,175.80 34.10 1.10 179.90 2.80 136,485.00 (508.00) 10,048.80 1.60 R R D S S
2003 16.50 (1.40) 20.00 0.60 18.00 0.20 (3.50) (2.00) 1,231.00 1,233.00 36.20 2.10 184.00 4.10 137,736.00 1,251.00 10,320.60 2.70 R R D S S
2004 16.30 (0.20) 19.90 (0.10) 19.10 (0.30) (3.60) (0.10) 1,238.00 1,238.10 37.20 1.00 188.90 4.90 139,252.00 1,516.00 10,755.70 4.22 R R R R R
2005 17.50 1.20 20.10 0.20 19.20 0.14 (2.60) 1.00 1,224.00 1,223.00 37.40 0.20 195.30 6.40 141,730.00 2,478.00 11,131.10 3.49 R R R R R
  R R R R R
 
Average 18.33 (0.09) 20.95 (0.09) 20.64 (0.04) (2.63) 0.00 1,178.76 1,178.76 39.74 0.48 142.43 4.35 121,631.40 #REF! 7,868.72 3.16
Average R President 16.66 (0.25) 20.31 0.05 21.41 0.03 (3.66) (0.31) 1,115.29 1,115.60 36.68 1.65 127.82 4.22 111,607.47 1,447.00 7,075.39 2.83
Average D President 19.46 0.24 19.84 (0.32) 16.91 (0.17) (0.39) 0.58 1,167.67 1,167.09 41.10 (1.82) 154.20 3.62 127,050.89 #REF! 8,492.91 3.08
R  v. D R R D D D D D R R R R D R D D #REF! D D
Average R Congress 16.97 0.26 17.19 (0.23) 14.76 (0.19) (0.22) 0.49 1,040.78 1,040.29 35.58 (1.67) 153.39 4.00 119,564.78 1,787.44 8,573.79 3.22
Average D Congress 18.19 0.01 21.56 (0.10) 21.49 0.16 (3.40) 0.11 1,213.78 1,213.67 43.41 0.94 131.72 4.31 117,325.44 #REF! 7,107.26 2.43
Average Split Congress 17.74 (0.56) 21.89 0.11 23.74 (0.10) (4.14) (0.68) 1,147.25 1,147.93 35.31 2.26 124.34 3.70 113,596.63 1,598.25 6,948.56 3.13
R v. D R D R R R R R D R R R R D R R #REF! R R
Split Congress v. D or R? DR S DR DR DR S DR DR DR DR S DR S S DR #REF! DR S
R Congress AND White House 11.27 0.33 13.33 0.03 12.77 (0.05) (2.07) 0.30 820.67 820.37 24.87 0.40 128.07 3.77 93,660.67 1,331.33 7,295.60 2.57
D Congress AND White House 18.73 0.30 21.30 (0.23) 19.23 (0.00) (2.57) 0.57 1,201.33 1,200.77 41.43 (0.07) 130.50 2.63 116,119.00 #REF! 7,052.97 2.17
Split branches  18.42 (0.20) 21.00 (0.08) 21.01 (0.04) (2.59) (0.13) 1,170.15 1,170.28 39.73 0.53 139.25 4.26 120,572.30 1,634.90 7,683.61 3.08
R v. D R D R D R R R D R R R D R D D #REF! R R
Split branches v. D or R? DR S DR DR DR S DR DR DR DR DR DR DR DR S #REF! S S

1930-2006
1930-2006 (lag)
1981-2006
1981-2006 (lag)
Summary




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