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readme    Policy made plain.

The Parties and the Economy II: One Year Policy Lag

By Michael Kinsley

1930-2006
1930-2006 (lag)
1981-2006
1981-2006 (lag)
Summary


Taxes   Spending   Deficit   "Bureau-crats" National Debt Inflation    Jobs   Growth  
  Federal government receipts as % of GDP change in Federal receipts as % of GDP Federal gov't outlays as % of GDP change in Federal outlays as % of GDP defense outlays as % of total outlays change in non-defense outlays as % of GDP Surplus(+)/ Deficit(-) as % of GDP change in surplus/deficit as % of GDP federal civilian employees (000) change in civilian employees federal debt held by public as % of GDP change in fed debt held by public as % GDP Consumer Price Index (1984=100) change in consumer price index total employed (thousand) change in total employed ("jobs created," thousands) Real GDP (billions of year 2000 dollars) % change in real GDP President House Senate Control of Congress (S=split) Control of both branches
1931 3.70 4.30 (0.60)   R R R R R
1932 2.80 (0.90) 6.90 2.60 (4.00) (3.40)   R R R R R
1933 3.50 0.70 8.00 1.10 (4.50) (0.50)   R R R R R
1934 4.80 1.30 10.70 2.70 (5.90) (1.40)   D D R S S
1935 5.20 0.40 9.20 (1.50) (4.00) 1.90   D D D D D
1936 5.00 (0.20) 10.50 1.30 (5.50) (1.50)   D D D D D
1937 6.10 1.10 8.60 (1.90) (2.50) 3.00   D D D D D
1938 7.60 1.50 7.70 (0.90) (0.10) 2.40   D D D D D
1939 7.10 (0.50) 10.30 2.60 (3.20) (3.10)   D D D D D
1940 6.80 (0.30) 9.80 (0.50) (3.00) 0.20 443.00 44.20 47,520.00 D D D D D
1941 7.60 0.80 12.00 2.20 (4.30) (1.30) 525.00 526.30 42.30 (1.90) 50,350.00 2,830.00 D D D D D
1942 10.10 2.50 24.30 12.30 (14.20) (9.90) 643.00 652.90 47.00 4.70 53,750.00 3,400.00 D D D D D
1943 13.30 3.20 43.60 19.30 (30.30) (16.10) 735.00 751.10 70.90 23.90 54,470.00 720.00 D D D D
1944 20.90 7.60 43.60 0.00 (22.70) 7.60 683.00 675.40 88.30 17.40 53,960.00 (510.00) D D D D D
1945 20.40 (0.50) 41.90 (1.70) (21.50) 1.20 736.00 734.80 106.20 17.90 52,820.00 (1,140.00) D D D D D
1946 17.60 (2.80) 24.80 (17.10) (7.20) 14.30 795.00 780.70 108.60 2.40 55,250.00 2,430.00 D D D D D
1947 16.50 (1.10) 14.80 (10.00) 1.70 8.90 777.00 768.10 96.20 (12.40) 57,038.00 1,788.00 D D D D D
1948 16.20 (0.30) 11.60 (3.20) 4.60 2.90 698.00 695.10 84.50 (11.70) 58,343.00 1,305.00 D R D S S
1949 14.50 (1.70) 14.30 2.70 0.20 (4.40) 694.00 698.40 79.10 (5.40) 57,651.00 (692.00) D R R R S
1950 14.40 (0.10) 15.60 1.30 (1.10) (1.30) 686.00 687.30 80.20 1.10 58,918.00 1,267.00 D D R S S
1951 16.10 1.70 14.20 (1.40) 1.90 3.00 738.00 735.00 66.90 (13.30) 59,961.00 1,043.00 D D D D D
1952 19.00 2.90 19.40 5.20 (0.40) (2.30) 729.00 731.30 61.60 (5.30) 60,250.00 289.00 D D D D D
1953 18.70 (0.30) 20.40 1.00 (1.70) (1.30) 694.00 695.30 58.60 (3.00) 61,179.00 929.00 D D D D D
1954 18.50 (0.20) 18.80 (1.60) (0.30) 1.40 666.00 664.60 59.50 0.90 60,109.00 (1,070.00) R R D S S
1955 16.60 (1.90) 17.30 (1.50) (0.80) (0.50) 673.00 673.50 57.40 (2.10) 62,170.00 2,061.00 R R R R R
1956 17.50 0.90 16.50 (0.80) 0.90 1.70 684.00 682.30 52.00 (5.40) 63,799.00 1,629.00 R D R S S
1957 17.80 0.30 17.00 0.50 0.80 (0.10) 708.00 708.10 48.70 (3.30) 64,071.00 272.00 R D D D S
1958 17.30 (0.50) 17.90 0.90 (0.60) (1.40) 720.00 721.40 49.20 0.50 63,036.00 (1,035.00) R D D D S
1959 16.10 (1.20) 18.70 0.80 (2.60) (2.00) 727.00 729.00 47.80 (1.40) 29.10 64,630.00 1,594.00 2,441.30 R D D D S
1960 17.90 1.80 17.80 (0.90) 0.10 2.70 761.00 758.30 45.70 (2.10) 29.60 0.50 65,778.00 1,148.00 2,501.80 2.48 R D D D S
1961 17.80 (0.10) 18.40 0.60 (0.60) (0.70) 782.00 782.70 44.90 (0.80) 29.90 0.30 65,746.00 (32.00) 2,560.00 2.33 R D D D S
1962 17.60 (0.20) 18.80 0.40 46.90 (1.30) (0.70) 827.00 827.70 43.70 (1.20) 30.20 0.30 66,702.00 956.00 2,715.20 6.06 D D D D D
1963 17.80 0.20 18.60 (0.20) 45.90 0.08 (0.80) 0.50 861.00 860.50 42.40 (1.30) 30.60 0.40 67,762.00 1,060.00 2,834.00 4.38 D D D D D
1964 17.60 (0.20) 18.50 (0.10) 44.40 0.22 (0.90) (0.10) 855.00 855.10 40.10 (2.30) 31.00 0.40 69,305.00 1,543.00 2,998.60 5.81 D D D D D
1965 17.00 (0.60) 17.20 (1.30) 41.30 (0.19) (0.20) 0.70 867.00 866.30 38.00 (2.10) 31.50 0.50 71,088.00 1,783.00 3,191.10 6.42 D D D D D
1966 17.40 0.40 17.90 0.70 42.10 0.27 (0.50) (0.30) 913.00 913.30 35.00 (3.00) 32.40 0.90 72,895.00 1,807.00 3,399.10 6.52 D D D D D
1967 18.30 0.90 19.40 1.50 44.50 0.40 (1.10) (0.60) 949.00 949.60 32.80 (2.20) 33.40 1.00 74,372.00 1,477.00 3,484.60 2.52 D D D D D
1968 17.70 (0.60) 20.60 1.20 45.10 0.54 (2.90) (1.80) 972.00 973.80 33.40 0.60 34.80 1.40 75,920.00 1,548.00 3,652.70 4.82 D D D D D
1969 19.70 2.00 19.40 (1.20) 44.00 (0.45) 0.30 3.20 960.00 956.80 29.30 (4.10) 36.70 1.90 77,902.00 1,982.00 3,765.40 3.09 D D D D D
1970 19.00 (0.70) 19.30 (0.10) 41.00 0.52 (0.30) (0.60) 983.00 983.60 28.00 (1.30) 38.80 2.10 78,678.00 776.00 3,771.90 0.17 R D D D S
1971 17.30 (1.70) 19.50 0.20 36.90 0.92 (2.10) (1.80) 989.00 990.80 28.10 0.10 40.50 1.70 79,367.00 689.00 3,898.60 3.36 R D D D S
1972 17.60 0.30 19.60 0.10 33.70 0.69 (2.00) 0.10 1,009.00 1,008.90 27.40 (0.70) 41.80 1.30 82,153.00 2,786.00 4,105.00 5.29 R D D D S
1973 17.70 0.10 18.80 (0.80) 30.50 0.07 (1.10) 0.90 1,030.00 1,029.10 26.10 (1.30) 44.40 2.60 85,064.00 2,911.00 4,341.50 5.76 R D D D S
1974 18.30 0.60 18.70 (0.10) 28.90 0.23 (0.40) 0.70 1,070.00 1,069.30 23.90 (2.20) 49.30 4.90 86,794.00 1,730.00 4,319.60 (0.50) R D D D S
1975 17.90 (0.40) 21.30 2.60 25.50 2.57 (3.40) (3.00) 1,107.00 1,110.00 25.30 1.40 53.80 4.50 85,846.00 (948.00) 4,311.20 (0.19) R D D D S
1976 17.20 (0.70) 21.40 0.10 23.60 0.48 (4.20) (0.80) 1,147.00 1,147.80 27.50 2.20 56.90 3.10 88,752.00 2,906.00 4,540.90 5.33 R D D D S
1977 18.00 0.80 20.70 (0.70) 22.70 (0.35) (2.70) 1.50 1,173.00 1,171.50 27.80 0.30 60.60 3.70 92,017.00 3,265.00 4,750.50 4.62 R D D D S
1978 18.00 20.70 0.00 23.30 (0.12) (2.70) 0.00 1,225.00 1,225.00 27.40 (0.40) 65.20 4.60 96,048.00 4,031.00 5,015.00 5.57 D D D D D
1979 18.50 0.50 20.20 (0.50) 22.30 (0.18) (1.60) 1.10 1,201.00 1,199.90 25.60 (1.80) 72.60 7.40 98,824.00 2,776.00 5,173.40 3.16 D D D D D
1980 19.00 0.50 21.70 1.50 22.50 1.12 (2.70) (1.10) 1,201.00 1,202.10 26.10 0.50 82.40 9.80 99,303.00 479.00 5,161.70 (0.23) D D D D D
1981 19.60 0.60 22.20 0.50 22.20 0.45 (2.60) 0.10 1,159.00 1,158.90 25.80 (0.30) 90.90 8.50 100,397.00 1,094.00 5,291.70 2.52 D D D D D
1982 19.10 (0.50) 23.10 0.90 24.20 0.24 (4.00) (1.40) 1,121.00 1,122.40 28.60 2.80 96.50 5.60 99,526.00 (871.00) 5,189.30 (1.94) R D R S S
1983 17.50 (1.60) 23.50 0.40 25.30 0.04 (6.00) (2.00) 1,131.00 1,133.00 33.10 4.50 99.60 3.10 100,834.00 1,308.00 5,423.80 4.52 R D R S S
1984 17.40 (0.10) 22.20 (1.30) 25.90 (1.10) (4.80) 1.20 1,127.00 1,125.80 34.00 0.90 103.90 4.30 105,005.00 4,171.00 5,813.60 7.19 R D R S S
1985 17.70 0.30 22.90 0.70 25.90 0.52 (5.10) (0.30) 1,145.00 1,145.30 36.40 2.40 107.60 3.70 107,150.00 2,145.00 6,053.70 4.13 R D R S S
1986 17.40 (0.30) 22.40 (0.50) 26.80 (0.57) (5.00) 0.10 1,108.00 1,107.90 39.40 3.00 109.60 2.00 109,597.00 2,447.00 6,263.60 3.47 R D R S S
1987 18.40 1.00 21.60 (0.80) 27.30 (0.69) (3.20) 1.80 1,142.00 1,140.20 40.70 1.30 113.60 4.00 112,440.00 2,843.00 6,475.10 3.38 R D R S S
1988 18.20 (0.20) 21.30 (0.30) 26.50 (0.05) (3.10) 0.10 1,172.00 1,171.90 41.00 0.30 118.30 4.70 114,968.00 2,528.00 6,742.70 4.13 R D D D S
1989 18.40 0.20 21.20 (0.10) 25.80 0.07 (2.80) 0.30 1,162.00 1,161.70 40.60 (0.40) 124.00 5.70 117,342.00 2,374.00 6,981.40 3.54 R D D D S
1990 18.00 (0.40) 21.80 0.60 23.10 1.03 (3.90) (1.10) 1,216.00 1,217.10 42.00 1.40 130.70 6.70 118,793.00 1,451.00 7,112.50 1.88 R D D D S
1991 17.80 (0.20) 22.30 0.50 19.80 1.12 (4.50) (0.60) 1,230.00 1,230.60 45.30 3.30 136.20 5.50 117,718.00 (1,075.00) 7,100.50 (0.17) R D D D S
1992 17.50 (0.30) 22.10 (0.20) 20.70 (0.36) (4.70) (0.20) 1,274.00 1,274.20 48.10 2.80 140.30 4.10 118,492.00 774.00 7,336.60 3.33 R D D D S
1993 17.60 0.10 21.40 (0.70) 19.80 (0.36) (3.90) 0.80 1,266.00 1,265.20 49.40 1.30 144.50 4.20 120,259.00 1,767.00 7,532.70 2.67 R D D D S
1994 18.10 0.50 21.00 (0.40) 18.40 (0.03) (2.90) 1.00 1,235.00 1,234.00 49.30 (0.10) 148.20 3.70 123,060.00 2,801.00 7,835.50 4.02 D D D D D
1995 18.50 0.40 20.70 (0.30) 17.10 0.02 (2.20) 0.70 1,210.00 1,209.30 49.20 (0.10) 152.40 4.20 124,900.00 1,840.00 8,031.70 2.50 D D D D D
1996 18.90 0.40 20.30 (0.40) 16.20 (0.15) (1.40) 0.80 1,166.00 1,165.20 48.50 (0.70) 156.90 4.50 126,708.00 1,808.00 8,328.90 3.70 D R R R S
1997 19.30 0.40 19.60 (0.70) 16.10 (0.57) (0.30) 1.10 1,149.00 1,147.90 46.10 (2.40) 160.50 3.60 129,558.00 2,850.00 8,703.50 4.50 D R R R S
1998 20.00 0.70 19.20 (0.40) 15.50 (0.22) 0.80 1.10 1,163.00 1,161.90 43.10 (3.00) 163.00 2.50 131,463.00 1,905.00 9,066.90 4.18 D R R R S
1999 20.00 0.00 18.70 (0.50) 15.40 (0.40) 1.40 0.60 1,155.00 1,154.40 39.80 (3.30) 166.60 3.60 133,488.00 2,025.00 9,470.30 4.45 D R R R S
2000 20.90 0.90 18.40 (0.30) 15.70 (0.31) 2.40 1.00 1,127.00 1,126.00 35.10 (4.70) 172.20 5.60 136,891.00 3,403.00 9,817.00 3.66 D R R R S
2001 19.80 (1.10) 18.50 0.10 15.60 0.10 1.30 (1.10) 1,145.00 1,146.10 33.00 (2.10) 177.10 4.90 136,993.00 102.00 9,890.70 0.75 D R R R S
2002 17.90 (1.90) 19.40 0.90 16.50 0.58 (1.50) (2.80) 1,173.00 1,175.80 34.10 1.10 179.90 2.80 136,485.00 (508.00) 10,048.80 1.60 R R D S S
2003 16.50 (1.40) 20.00 0.60 18.00 0.20 (3.50) (2.00) 1,231.00 1,233.00 36.20 2.10 184.00 4.10 137,736.00 1,251.00 10,320.60 2.70 R R D S S
2004 16.30 (0.20) 19.90 (0.10) 19.10 (0.30) (3.60) (0.10) 1,238.00 1,238.10 37.20 1.00 188.90 4.90 139,252.00 1,516.00 10,755.70 4.22 R R R R R
2005 17.50 1.20 20.10 0.20 19.20 0.14 (2.60) 1.00 1,224.00 1,223.00 37.40 0.20 195.30 6.40 141,730.00 2,478.00 11,131.10 3.49 R R R R R
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