Election ScorecardWhere the presidential race stands today.

If the Election Were Held Today
Winner		Loser
	271 Electoral Votes 174 solid, 60 likely, 37 iffy		267 Electoral Votes 153 solid, 85 likely, 29 iffy

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How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. The first table shows surveys in the most closely contested states. The second table shows surveys in states that are expected to go to one candidate but might be picked off by the other. In the left column, each state and its electoral votes are marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading in that state (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and with what degree of certainty. Slate awards electoral votes based on our poll analysis, which appears in the right-hand column. We color a state gray if it's likely to split its electoral votes. New polls are highlighted in yellow. (A) means a poll was automated. (O) means it was online. (D) means the polling firm is Democratic; (R) means the firm is Republican.

The other tables below track national surveys. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.

Tightest States
State	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Margin	Dates	Sponsor/Pollster	Slate's Call
FL (27)	48	47	1	3.5	10/15-19	Quinnipiac	Bush iffy. He leads narrowly in two of the three conventional polls and two of the three unconventional polls in the last two weeks. The two contrary surveys show Kerry ahead by just 1 point. The party breakdown in Mason-Dixon's poll, which has Bush up 3, matches the ratio of Democrats to Republicans in statewide voter registration. On balance, the numbers suggest that Bush is ahead. But the pattern still isn't as consistent for him here as it is for Kerry in Pennsylvania. (Read Slate's dispatch from Florida.)
	50.1	48.9	0.3	2.1	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	49	50	N/A	4	10/15-17	SurveyUSA (A)
	48	45	N/A	4	10/14-16	Mason-Dixon
	44	45	2	4	10/10-15	Univ. of North Florida
	49	45	1	3	10/12-14	Strategic Vision (R)
	49	46	1	4	10/8-14	Rasmussen (A)
	48	48	1	4	10/4-10	Washington Post
	49	44	1	3	10/4-6	Strategic Vision
	48	44	3	4	10/4-5	Mason-Dixon
	51	44	N/A	3.7	10/1-5	Quinnipiac
	47	49	N/A	4	10/2-5	American Research Group
	49.1	49.5	0.5	2.2	9/30-5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	51	46	N/A	3.8	10/1-3	SurveyUSA (A)
IA (7)	51	45	1	3.8	10/18-20	SurveyUSA (A)	Bush likely. Mason-Dixon gives him a 6-point lead. That's 4 points bigger than any conventional poll has shown, and the party breakdown in this poll is 2 to 3 points to the right of both statewide registration and the 2000 VNS exit poll. Still, an adjustment for party leaves Bush ahead, as the earlier Trib poll suggests. No conventional October poll favors Kerry, and SurveyUSA, which had a dead heat two weeks ago, agrees that Bush has gained. We're taking this one out of the iffy column.
	47.9	51.1	0.4	4.1	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	49	43	1	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	47	47	2	4	10/10-12	American Research Group
	49	46	1	3	10/9-11	Strategic Vision (R)
	47	45	1	4.4	10/8-11	Chicago Tribune
	46	50	N/A	5.0	9/27-10/10	Rasmussen (A)
	48	47	N/A	3.9	10/4-6	SurveyUSA (A)
	44.5	51.1	0.2	4.1	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
ME (4)	45	51	N/A	3.9	10/17-19	SurveyUSA (A)	Kerry breathes easier. SurveyUSA has him up 6. That's a steady 7-point gain for him over the past month. It's an automated poll, but we see no reason not to trust such polls for trend data. Let's reevaluate. The evidence that Kerry's lead is below 4 is now thin and old. So it now looks like he'll take the second CD and all 4 EVs. (Read Slate's dispatch from Maine.)
	47	49	N/A	3.9	10/3-5	SurveyUSA (A)
	42	39	4	5	9/23-27	Strategic Mktg Svs.
	47	46	N/A	4	9/20-22	SurveyUSA (A)
	42	45	3	4	9/10-23	Critical Insights
	44	48	4	4	9/8-10	American Research Group
MN (10)	47	45	2	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon	Kerry likely. Mason-Dixon hasn't published its party breakdown here, but its breakdowns in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan were all more Republican than the 2004 exit polls in those states. We're dubious of the numbers for that reason and because Kerry has led in every previous conventional poll since mid-September, including one by a Republican firm a week ago. But it's not out of the question that a 2-point Kerry lead became a 2-point Bush lead in that time, so we'll keep an eye on it. (Read Slate's dispatch from Minnesota.)
	47	47	N/A	4.5	10/11-17	Rasmussen (A)
	45	47	1	3	10/12-14	Strategic Vision (R)
	43	48	2	3.4	10/9-11	Star-Tribune
	43	45	2	4.4	10/8-11	Chicago Tribune
	43	50	1	3	10/2-4	Hart Research (D)
NV (5)	52	45	N/A	4	10/16-18	SurveyUSA (A)	Bush likely. He has led in every conventional poll. (Read Slate's dispatch from Nevada.)
	52	42	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	50	46	N/A	4	10/1-3	SurveyUSA (A)
	48	44	2	4	9/20-28	BR&S/Las Vegas Sun
	47	45	N/A	5	9/23	Rasmussen (A)
	52	43	1	5	9/18-21	Gallup
NH (4)	47	46	1	4	10/16-19	American Research Group	Kerry iffy. We checked Mason-Dixon's party breakdown to see whether it matches the 2000 exit poll. It does. ARG has Bush up 1. Zogby has Kerry up 5, but that's online. Rasmussen has Kerry up 2, but that's automated. Research 2000 has Kerry up 4, but that's a week old. That leaves Suffolk as the only conventional poll to show a Kerry lead in the last week. The average of October polls still tilts to Kerry, but one more conventional survey on Bush's side will probably move this state to his column.
	47	49	N/A	4.5	10/18	Rasmussen (A)
	48	45	1	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	41	46	1	4.9	10/14-17	Suffolk Univ.
	46.0	51.1	1.1	4.3	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	45	49	2	4	10/12-14	Research 2000
	47	47	1	4	10/3-5	American Research Group
	43.9	50.5	1.7	4.1	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	42	49	1	4	10/3-4	Franklin Pierce
	50	45	1	4.3	9/27-10/3	UNH Granite Poll
NM (5)	46	48	1	4	10/16-18	American Research Group	Kerry iffy. This is Mason-Dixon's biggest shocker, a 5-point lead for Bush. Is it real? The survey's party breakdown is to the right of statewide registration but to the left of the 2000 exit poll. Accordingly, we think it's valid confirmation of Gallup. That leaves the candidates 2-2 among conventional October polls. For now, we'll let Kerry's 9-point margin in the Zogby online survey break the tie. But the Albuquerque Journal poll is getting old. Kerry needs fresh confirmation of his lead, or this state will slip away. (Read Slate's dispatch from New Mexico.)
	49	45	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	44.1	53.6	1.0	4.3	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	50	47	2	4	10/12-14	CNN/USA
	42.5	53.9	1.7	4.2	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	43	46	2	3	10/1-4	Albuquerque Journal
	45	49	1	4	10/2-4	Hart Research (D)
OH (20)	47	48	1	3.5	10/17-20	CNN/USA	Kerry iffy. Gallup agrees Kerry is barely ahead here, and our review of Mason-Dixon's party breakdown shows it is 5 points to the right of the 2000 exit poll. Fox doesn't publish its party breakdown. Accordingly, we're growing skeptical of the evidence against the previous pattern of Kerry leading narrowly in conventional surveys. (Read Slate's dispatch from Ohio.)
	49	44	N/A	3.5	10/17-18	FOX News
	46	45	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	47	49	N/A	3.8	10/16-17	Survey USA (A)
	47	50	N/A	3.5	10/14-17	ABC News
	47	47	N/A	4	10/12-18	Rasmussen (A)
	46	48	N/A	3.6	10/11-17	Ohio Poll
	49	47	N/A	4	10/7-13	Rasmussen (A)
	51	43	1	3	10/9-11	Strategic Vision (R)
	45	49	N/A	4.4	10/8-11	Chicago Tribune
	47	48	1	4	10/4-6	American Research Group
	48	49	N/A	3.6	10/2-4	Survey USA (A)
	48	47	N/A	4	9/25-10/2	Rasmussen (A)
PA (21)	45	46	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon	Kerry likely. He leads barely but consistently in all nonpartisan October polls. (Read Slate's dispatch from Pennsylvania.)
	45	51	N/A	4	10/15-17	SurveyUSA (A)
	46	47	1	4	10/6-12	Rasmussen (A)
	46	45	1	3	10/9-11	Strategic Vision (R)
	47	49	N/A	2.7	10/9-11	Quinnipiac
	46	48	1	4	10/4-6	American Research Group
	47	49	N/A	3.6	10/3-5	SurveyUSA (A)
	43	50	N/A	4	10/1-4	WHYY/WCU
	43	49	N/A	4	9/30-10/4	Keystone
	47	47	N/A	4	9/25-10/1	Rasmussen (A)
WI (10)	50	44	3	4	10/16-19	CNN/USA/Gallup	Bush iffy. Yesterday we shifted this state to Bush because among the three polls taken in the last week, one had a tie, the second had Bush up 1, and the third had Bush up 6. Today Mason-Dixon calls the race a tie. The survey's party breakdown is 5 points to the right of the 2000 exit poll, so we think it suggests that with real turnout, Kerry would win the state. But we don't move states based on such speculation. Kerry will have to show us fresh polls with him in the lead.
	47	47	N/A	2	10/16-19	American Research Group
	48	47	2	4	10/14-19	U of Minnesota
	45	45	1	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	47.5	51.3	0.2	3.3	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	47	48	N/A	4.5	10/14	Rasmussen (A)
	45	48	N/A	5	10/4-13	Wisconsin Public Radio
	49	44	2	3	10/9-11	Strategic Vision (R)
	43	47	2	4.4	10/8-11	Chicago Tribune
	49	46	2	4	10/3-5	CNN/USA/Gallup
	48.1	50.6	0.1	3.4	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	44	48	1	5	10/3-5	Lake Snell Perry (D)

Possible Upsets
State	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Margin	Dates	Sponsor/Pollster	Slate's Call
AZ (10)	54	43	N/A	4	10/17-19	Survey USA (A)	Bush pretty safe. Kerry's debate surge brought him within 5 points, but that's probably his high tide. (Read Slate's dispatch from Arizona.)
	47	40	N/A	4	10/18-19	Arizona Republic
	49	44	N/A	5	10/7-11	NAU
	55	41	N/A	4.1	10/5-7	Survey USA (A)
	48	38	N/A	4.1	10/2-4	Arizona Republic
CO (9)	52	45	N/A	4.1	10/18-20	SurveyUSA (A)	Bush pretty safe. Latest poll indicates the ballot measure to split EVs will fail. Kerry's debate surge brought him within 5 points, but that's probably his high tide. (Read Slate's dispatch from Colorado.)
	50	45	N/A	4.5	10/18	Rasmussen (A)
	51	45	1	4	10/14-17	CNN/USA/Gallup
	47	42	3	4.9	10/13-14	Rocky Mountain News
	52	44	N/A	4.1	10/5-7	Survey USA (A)
	50	41	N/A	4	10/4-6	Mason-Dixon
	49	49	1	5	10/3-6	CNN/USA
MI (17)	44	51	1	3.9	10/18-20	SurveyUSA (A)	Kerry looks pretty safe. Mason-Dixon has him up 1 in a survey whose party breakdown is a full 8 points to the right of the 2000 exit poll. SurveyUSA has him up 7. Both findings are consistent with previous October polls giving Kerry an average lead of 6.5. Even a Republican survey a week ago had Kerry up 8. We think the Detroit News poll is wrong.
	46.9	42.7	1.2	5	10/18-19	Detriot News
	46	47	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	40	48	1	3	10/12-14	Strategic Vision (R)
	43	48	2	4	10/11-13	Research 2000
	46	49	N/A	5	10/6-12	Rasmussen (A)
	42	52	N/A	3.9	10/4-6	Survey USA (A)
MO (11)	51	45	N/A	3.9	10/16-18	Survey USA (A)	Bush pretty safe. Mason-Dixon backs up SurveyUSA with a Bush lead of 5 to 6 points . (Read Slate's dispatch from Missouri.)
	49	44	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	50.7	47.6	1.1	3	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	49	47	N/A	3.8	10/2-4	Survey USA (A)
	49.8	47.6	1.3	3	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	51	45	N/A	5	9/22-10/5	Rasmussen (A)
	50	44	N/A	4	9/16-19	American Research Group
	48	41	1	4	9/14-16	Mason-Dixon
	49	42	N/A	3.5	9/13-16	Research 2000
NJ (15)	43	51	N/A	3.8	10/16-18	Survey USA (A)	Kerry pulling away after his 5-point lead in one poll collapsed to a tie.
	43	44	1	3	10/16-18	Strategic Vision (R)
	45	49	1	3.5	10/14-17	Quinnipiac
	38	51	N/A	N/A	10/14-17	Star-Ledger
	46	46	2	4.5	10/8-14	FDU Public Mind
	41	46	2	3	10/9-11	Strategic Vision (R)
	43	48	N/A	4.5	10/7-11	FDU Public Mind
	44	53	N/A	5	9/26-10/10	Rasmussen (A)
	41	47	N/A	4.1	10/1-6	Star-Ledger
	41	49	N/A	4.5	10/1-6	FDU Public Mind
	46	49	2	3.8	10/1-4	Quinnipiac
	45	50	N/A	3.8	10/1-3	Survey USA (A)
OR (7)	45	53	N/A	4	10/15-18	CNN/USA	Kerry possibly at risk. We blew off the Riley survey because Kerry led by 5 or more points in five of six October polls. Even Gallup has him up 8. But now Mason-Dixon finds him leading by just 1 point in a survey whose party breakdown matches statewide registration. It's probably a blip, but this is no longer a locked-up state. (Read Slate's dispatch from Oregon.)
	46	47	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	44	50	N/A	4	10/9-13	Research 2000
	48	43	1	4.9	10/9-13	Riley Research
	44	49	2	4	10/10-12	American Research Group
	44	53	N/A	4	10/9-11	Survey USA (A)
VA (13)	50	46	N/A	3.9	10/16-18	Survey USA (A)	Bush too close for comfort. His 4-point lead in SurveyUSA is plausible, given the 6-point spread in both September polls.
	50	50	N/A	5	9/14-27	Rasmussen (A)
	49	43	1	4	9/24-27	Mason-Dixon
	53	42	N/A	3.7	9/21-23	SurveyUSA (A)
	49	43	N/A	4	9/12-14	American Research Group
WA (11)	44	52	N/A	5	10/6-19	Rasmussen (A)	Kerry safe. He has never trailed. (Read Slate's dispatch from Washington.)
	45	52	N/A	4.1	10/16-18	Survey USA (A)
	44	49	2	3	10/4-6	Strategic Vision (R)
	43	54	N/A	4	10/2-4	Survey USA (A)
	43	50	N/A	5	9/10-23	Rasmussen (A)
WV (5)	48.6	45.8	0.7	4.4	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)	Bush pretty safe. Yesterday we put this state in the danger zone pending the first nonpartisan conventional poll of October. Now we've got that poll, and it shows Bush up by 5, contrary to Democratic and online surveys. He regains the presumption of safety. (Read Slate's dispatch from West Virginia.)
	49	44	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	47	45	2	4	10/12-14	Global Strategy Group (D)
	50.1	44.0	0.7	4.4	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	51	45	N/A	5	9/17-20	Gallup
	50	44	N/A	4.5	9/14-16	Rasmussen (A)
	46	46	2	4	9/14-16	American Research Group
	45	44	N/A	4	9/13-19	Mason-Dixon

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. David Kenner is a former Slate intern. Louisa Thomas is on the editorial staff of The New Yorker.

Photographs of: George Bush smiling by Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images; Bush frowning by Hector Mata/AFP/Getty Images; John Kerry smiling by Jason Cohn/Reuters; Kerry frowning by David Denoma/Reuters.

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