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Election ScorecardWhere the presidential race stands today.

If the Election Were Held Today
Winner		Loser
	271 Electoral Votes 153 solid, 88 likely, 44 iffy		267 Electoral Votes 174 solid, 53 likely, 26 iffy

Analysis Oct. 21, noon ET: Big lift for Bush in this morning's polls. He's safer in West Virginia, he's in better position to take Ohio, he's in good position to take New Hampshire, and he has taken Wisconsin outright. He loses one electoral vote in Maine, but the 10 from Wisconsin bump him up from 261 to 271, giving him the election.

How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. The first table shows surveys in the most closely contested states. The second table shows surveys in states that are expected to go to one candidate but might be picked off by the other. In the left column, each state and its electoral votes are marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading in that state (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and with what degree of certainty. Slate awards electoral votes based on our poll analysis, which appears in the right-hand column. We color a state gray if it's likely to split its electoral votes. New polls are highlighted in yellow. (A) means a poll was automated. (O) means it was online. (D) means the polling firm is Democratic; (R) means the firm is Republican.

Tightest States
State	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Margin	Dates	Sponsor/Pollster	Slate's Call
FL (27)	48	47	1	3.5	10/15-19	Quinnipiac	Bush iffy. Mason-Dixon's survey is newer than UNF's and more consistent with most recent polls. Survey USA has Kerry ahead but is automated and excludes Nader. Still, Bush has now led in just three of six nonpartisan conventional October polls. Kerry had two; the other was a tie. Very dangerous for the president. We'll withhold reevaluation until we see consecutive surveys showing Kerry ahead. (Read Slate's dispatch from Florida.)
	50.1	48.9	0.3	2.1	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	49	50	N/A	4	10/15-17	SurveyUSA (A)
	48	45	N/A	4	10/14-16	Mason-Dixon
	44	45	2	4	10/10-15	Univ. of North Florida
	49	45	1	3	10/12-14	Strategic Vision (R)
	49	46	1	4	10/8-14	Rasmussen (A)
	48	48	1	4	10/4-10	Washington Post
	49	44	1	3	10/4-6	Strategic Vision
	48	44	3	4	10/4-5	Mason-Dixon
	51	44	N/A	3.7	10/1-5	Quinnipiac
	47	49	N/A	4	10/2-5	American Research Group
	49.1	49.5	0.5	2.2	9/30-5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	51	46	N/A	3.8	10/1-3	SurveyUSA (A)
IA (7)	47.9	51.1	0.4	4.1	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)	Bush iffy. Three October polls (Trib, GOP firm, and Dem firm) put him narrowly ahead. All other October polls are tied, automated, or online. Zogby's is the newest and has Kerry up 3, but that's a gain for Bush in his survey. We'll need to see a more conventional poll before reevaluating.
	47	47	2	4	10/10-12	American Research Group
	49	46	1	3	10/9-11	Strategic Vision (R)
	47	45	1	4.4	10/8-11	Chicago Tribune
	46	50	N/A	5.0	9/27-10/10	Rasmussen (A)
	48	47	N/A	3.9	10/4-6	SurveyUSA (A)
	44.5	51.1	0.2	4.1	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
ME (4)	45	51	N/A	3.9	10/17-19	SurveyUSA (A)	Kerry breathes easier. SurveyUSA has him up 6. That's a steady 7-point gain for him over the past month. It's an automated poll, but we see no reason not to trust such polls for trend data. Let's reevaluate. The evidence that Kerry's lead is below 4 is now thin and old. So it now looks like he'll take the second CD and all 4 EVs. (Read Slate's dispatch from Maine.)
	47	49	N/A	3.9	10/3-5	SurveyUSA (A)
	42	39	4	5	9/23-27	Strategic Mktg Svs.
	47	46	N/A	4	9/20-22	SurveyUSA (A)
	42	45	3	4	9/10-23	Critical Insights
	44	48	4	4	9/8-10	American Research Group
MN (10)	47	47	N/A	4.5	10/11-17	Rasmussen (A)	Kerry likely. He has led in every conventional poll for the past month. (Read Slate's dispatch from Minnesota.)
	45	47	1	3	10/12-14	Strategic Vision (R)
	43	48	2	3.4	10/9-11	Star-Tribune
	43	45	2	4.4	10/8-11	Chicago Tribune
	43	50	1	3	10/2-4	Hart Research (D)
NV (5)	52	45	N/A	4	10/16-18	SurveyUSA (A)	Bush likely. He has led in every conventional poll. (Read Slate's dispatch from Nevada.)
	52	42	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	50	46	N/A	4	10/1-3	SurveyUSA (A)
	48	44	2	4	9/20-28	BR&S/Las Vegas Sun
	47	45	N/A	5	9/23	Rasmussen (A)
	52	43	1	5	9/18-21	Gallup
NH (4)	47	46	1	4	10/16-19	American Research Group	Kerry iffy. Mason-Dixon backs up ARG's suggestion that Bush is ahead. Let's reevaluate. Zogby has Kerry up 5, but that's online. Rasmussen has Kerry up 2, but that's automated. Research 2000 has Kerry up 4, but that's a week old. That leaves Suffolk as the only conventional poll to show a Kerry lead in the last week. The average of October polls still tilts to Kerry, but one more conventional survey on Bush's side will probably move this state to his column.
	47	49	N/A	4.5	10/18	Rasmussen (A)
	48	45	1	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	41	46	1	4.9	10/14-17	Suffolk Univ.
	46.0	51.1	1.1	4.3	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	45	49	2	4	10/12-14	Research 2000
	47	47	1	4	10/3-5	American Research Group
	43.9	50.5	1.7	4.1	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	42	49	1	4	10/3-4	Franklin Pierce
	50	45	1	4.3	9/27-10/3	UNH Granite Poll
NM (5)	46	48	1	4	10/16-18	American Research Group	Kerry iffy. This call seemed shaky to us on Tuesday, but critical mass is now gathering behind Kerry. ARG and Zogby are backing up the Albuquerque Journal poll, leaving Gallup as the sole survey leaning to Bush. (Read Slate's dispatch from New Mexico.)
	44.1	53.6	1.0	4.3	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	50	47	2	4	10/12-14	CNN/USA
	42.5	53.9	1.7	4.2	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	43	46	2	3	10/1-4	Albuquerque Journal
	45	49	1	4	10/2-4	Hart Research (D)
OH (20)	49	44	N/A	3.5	10/17-18	FOX News	Kerry iffy. Yesterday we said the pattern of evidence for Kerry was clear enough that we would need double confirmation of Fox's numbers before reevaluating the state. Today Mason-Dixon gave us the first confirmation. We're a bit wary of this survey because it has more Republicans than Democrats, whereas the 2000 VNS exit poll had 743 Democrats and 664 Republicans. Still, Fox is no longer alone. We'll keep an eye on it. (Read Slate's dispatch from Ohio.)
	46	45	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	47	49	N/A	3.8	10/16-17	Survey USA (A)
	47	50	N/A	3.5	10/14-17	ABC News
	47	47	N/A	4	10/12-18	Rasmussen (A)
	46	48	N/A	3.6	10/11-17	Ohio Poll
	49	47	N/A	4	10/7-13	Rasmussen (A)
	51	43	1	3	10/9-11	Strategic Vision (R)
	45	49	N/A	4.4	10/8-11	Chicago Tribune
	47	48	1	4	10/4-6	American Research Group
	48	49	N/A	3.6	10/2-4	Survey USA (A)
	48	47	N/A	4	9/25-10/2	Rasmussen (A)
PA (21)	51	45	N/A	4	10/15-17	Survey USA (A)	Kerry likely. He leads barely but consistently in all nonpartisan October polls. (Read Slate's dispatch from Pennsylvania.)
	46	47	1	4	10/6-12	Rasmussen (A)
	46	45	1	3	10/9-11	Strategic Vision (R)
	47	49	N/A	2.7	10/9-11	Quinnipiac
	46	48	1	4	10/4-6	American Research Group
	47	49	N/A	3.6	10/3-5	SurveyUSA (A)
	43	50	N/A	4	10/1-4	WHYY/WCU
	43	49	N/A	4	9/30-10/4	Keystone
	47	47	N/A	4	9/25-10/1	Rasmussen (A)
WI (10)	50	44	3	4	10/16-19	CNN/USA/Gallup	Bush iffy. Yesterday we doubted Gallup's numbers because it was isolated. Today its lead is bigger, and it is no longer isolated. Let's reevaluate. Three polls have been taken in the last week. One has a tie; the second has Bush up 1; the third has Bush up 6. Only two nonpartisan conventional October surveys show Kerry ahead, and they're getting old. The presumption shifts to Bush.
	47	47	N/A	2	10/16-19	American Research Group
	48	47	2	4	10/14-19	U of Minnesota
	47.5	51.3	0.2	3.3	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	47	48	N/A	4.5	10/14	Rasmussen (A)
	45	48	N/A	5	10/4-13	Wisconsin Public Radio
	49	44	2	3	10/9-11	Strategic Vision (R)
	43	47	2	4.4	10/8-11	Chicago Tribune
	49	46	2	4	10/3-5	CNN/USA/Gallup
	48.1	50.6	0.1	3.4	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	44	48	1	5	10/3-5	Lake Snell Perry (D)

Possible Upsets
State	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Margin	Dates	Sponsor/Pollster	Slate's Call
AZ (10)	54	43	N/A	4	10/17-19	Survey USA (A)	Bush pretty safe. Kerry's debate surge brought him within 5 points, but that's probably his high tide. (Read Slate's dispatch from Arizona.)
	47	40	N/A	4	10/18-19	Arizona Republic
	49	44	N/A	5	10/7-11	NAU
	55	41	N/A	4.1	10/5-7	Survey USA (A)
	48	38	N/A	4.1	10/2-4	Arizona Republic
CO (9)	50	45	N/A	4.5	10/18	Rasmussen (A)	Bush pretty safe. Latest poll indicates the ballot measure to split EVs will fail. Kerry's debate surge brought him within 5 points, but that's probably his high tide.
	51	45	1	4	10/14-17	CNN/USA/Gallup
	47	42	3	4.9	10/13-14	Rocky Mountain News
	52	44	N/A	4.1	10/5-7	Survey USA (A)
	50	41	N/A	4	10/4-6	Mason-Dixon
	49	49	1	5	10/3-6	CNN/USA
MI (17)	46.9	42.7	1.2	5	10/18-19	Detriot News	Kerry probably safe. Detroit News has Bush up 4, but every other October poll puts Kerry ahead, with an average margin of 6.5. Even a Republican survey a week ago had Kerry up 8. We'll need more evidence before believing that the state has shifted that far in a week.
	40	48	1	3	10/12-14	Strategic Vision (R)
	43	48	2	4	10/11-13	Research 2000
	46	49	N/A	5	10/6-12	Rasmussen (A)
	42	52	N/A	3.9	10/4-6	Survey USA (A)
MO (11)	51	45	N/A	3.9	10/16-18	Survey USA (A)	Bush pretty safe. Mason-Dixon backs up SurveyUSA with a Bush lead of 5 to 6 points . (Read Slate's dispatch from Missouri.)
	49	44	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	50.7	47.6	1.1	3	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	49	47	N/A	3.8	10/2-4	Survey USA (A)
	49.8	47.6	1.3	3	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	51	45	N/A	5	9/22-10/5	Rasmussen (A)
	50	44	N/A	4	9/16-19	American Research Group
	48	41	1	4	9/14-16	Mason-Dixon
	49	42	N/A	3.5	9/13-16	Research 2000
NJ (15)	43	51	N/A	3.8	10/16-18	Survey USA (A)	Kerry pulling away after his 5-point lead in one poll collapsed to a tie.
	43	44	1	3	10/16-18	Strategic Vision (R)
	45	49	1	3.5	10/14-17	Quinnipiac
	38	51	N/A	N/A	10/14-17	Star-Ledger
	46	46	2	4.5	10/8-14	FDU Public Mind
	41	46	2	3	10/9-11	Strategic Vision (R)
	43	48	N/A	4.5	10/7-11	FDU Public Mind
	44	53	N/A	5	9/26-10/10	Rasmussen (A)
	41	47	N/A	4.1	10/1-6	Star-Ledger
	41	49	N/A	4.5	10/1-6	FDU Public Mind
	46	49	2	3.8	10/1-4	Quinnipiac
	45	50	N/A	3.8	10/1-3	Survey USA (A)
OR (7)	45	53	N/A	4	10/15-18	CNN/USA	Kerry probably safe. He leads by 5 or more points in five of six October polls. (Read Slate's dispatch from Oregon.)
	44	50	N/A	4	10/9-13	Research 2000
	48	43	1	4.9	10/9-13	Riley Research
	44	49	2	4	10/10-12	American Research Group
	44	53	N/A	4	10/9-11	Survey USA (A)
VA (13)	50	46	N/A	3.9	10/16-18	Survey USA (A)	Bush too close for comfort. His 4-point lead in SurveyUSA is plausible, given the 6-point spread in both September polls.
	50	50	N/A	5	9/14-27	Rasmussen (A)
	49	43	1	4	9/24-27	Mason-Dixon
	53	42	N/A	3.7	9/21-23	SurveyUSA (A)
	49	43	N/A	4	9/12-14	American Research Group
WA (11)	45	52	N/A	4.1	10/16-18	Survey USA (A)	Kerry safe. He has never trailed. (Read Slate's dispatch from Washington.)
	44	49	2	3	10/4-6	Strategic Vision (R)
	43	54	N/A	4	10/2-4	Survey USA (A)
	43	50	N/A	5	9/10-23	Rasmussen (A)
WV (5)	48.6	45.8	0.7	4.4	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)	Bush pretty safe. Yesterday we put this state in the danger zone pending the first nonpartisan conventional poll of October. Now we've got that poll, and it shows Bush up by 5, contrary to Democratic and online surveys. He regains the presumption of safety. (Read Slate's dispatch from West Virginia.)
	49	44	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	47	45	2	4	10/12-14	Global Strategy Group (D)
	50.1	44.0	0.7	4.4	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	51	45	N/A	5	9/17-20	Gallup
	50	44	N/A	4.5	9/14-16	Rasmussen (A)
	46	46	2	4	9/14-16	American Research Group
	45	44	N/A	4	9/13-19	Mason-Dixon