HOME / election scorecard: Where the elections stand today.

Election ScorecardWhere the presidential race stands today.

Updated Friday, Oct. 1, 2004, at 11:40 AM ET

Listen to this story on NPR's Day to Day Listen to this story on NPR's Day to Day.

If the Election Were Held Today
Winner		Loser
	352 Electoral Votes 215 solid, 137 close		186 Electoral Votes 153 solid, 33 close

RSS

Analysis Sept. 30: Terrific news for Bush. His average lead in national polls continues to rise. Surveys begun within the last week show margins of 6, 6, 8, and 10, for an average of 7.5. Gallup, which had him up 3 in Florida, now gives him a lead of 9 there, outside the margin of error. Gallup also puts him up 3 points in Pennsylvania; three other recent polls had Kerry leading narrowly there. Kerry's lead in New Jersey is down to 1 point. Silver lining for Kerry: He's down just 2 in Ohio, better than the 4-point deficit in the previous sampling by a different pollster.

How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.

The sixth table shows the latest state polls and tallies the electoral votes for each candidate if those polls hold true on Nov. 2. Each poll has a margin of error based on its sample size. Pollsters consider a lead significant only if it is more than double the margin of error. If a candidate leads by at least twice the margin, we put that state's electoral votes in his "solid" column. Otherwise, we put the votes in his "close" column.

In the table of state polls, each state is marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and by how much. When a state poll is tied, we leave the electoral votes with the candidate who led in that state's previous poll (since the average of the two polls leans that way), but we indicate the tie by shading thestate gray on the map and in the table. New polls are marked in yellow. If a poll moves a state's electoral votes into a new column, a red or blue arrow shows the direction in which that state has moved, as follows:

Trial Heat							Trend
Bush	Kerry	Nader	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Bush	Kerry	Since
45	47	2	4	9/30-10/2	Registered	Newsweek	-4	+4	9/9-10
51	45	2	3	9/25-28	Likely	LA Times	N/A	N/A	N/A
51	41	2	3.6	9/24-28	Likely	ICR	0	-3	9/8-12
45	45	2	4	9/22-27	Likely	IBD/TIPP	0	+3	9/14-18
48	40	2	3.5	9/22-26	Registered	Pew	+3	-2	9/17-21
51	45	2	3.5	9/23-26	Likely	ABC/WP	-1	+2	9/6-8
52	44	3	3	9/24-26	Likely	CNN/USA	-3	+2	9/13-15
50	45	0	3.1	9/22-23	Likely	Battleground	+1	0	9/12-15
48	42	5	4	9/21-23	Likely	Time	-4	+2	9/7-9
50	44	2	4	9/20-22	Likely	Marist	+3	-3	7/30-8/2
46	43	2	3.1	9/17-19	Likely	Zogby	0	+1	9/8-9
49	41	N/A	3	9/20-22	Registered	CBS/NYT	-1	-1	9/12-16
52	45	1	3.5	9/20-22	Likely	AP	0	+2	9/7-9
46	42	1	3	9/21-22	Likely	Fox	-1	-1	9/7-8
47	45	5	3.1	9/19-21	Likely	Democracy Corps	0	0	9/12-14
50	46	1	4	9/17-19	Likely	NBC/WSJ	N/A	N/A	8/23-25
50	42	3	3	9/12-16	Registered	CBS/NYT	+1	+1	9/6-8
47	48	2	4	9/9-13	Likely	Harris	0	+1	8/10-15
46	46	3	3.5	9/7-12	Likely	IBD/TIPP	N/A	N/A
52	42	3	4	9/7-9	Likely	Time	0	0	8/31-9/2
51	46	1	3.5	9/7-9	Likely	AP	N/A	N/A
47	43	3	3	9/7-8	Likely	Fox	+4	-1	8/24-25

Bush Job Approval						Trend
Approve	Disapprove	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Approve	Disapprove	Since
52	35	3	9/23-26	Registered	ABC/WP	0	-3	9/6-8
54	44	3	9/24-26	Likely	CNN/USA	+2	-1	9/13-15
53	45	3.1	9/23	Likely	Battleground	0	+1	9/22
53	43	4	9/21-23	Likely	Time	-3	+2	9/7-9
49	49	3/5	9/20-22	Registered	Marist	0	+2	7/30-8-2
47	52	3.1	9/17-19	Likely	Zogby	0	-1	9/8-9
48	44	3	9/20-22	Registered	CBS/NYT	-2	+2	9/12-16
50	45	3	9/21-22	Likely	Fox	+1	+1	9/7-8
49	47	3.1	9/19-21	Likely	Democracy Corps	-1	-1	9/12-14
47	48	3	9/17-19	Registered	NBC/WSJ	0	0	8/23-25
53	45	3.1	9/12-15	Likely	Battleground	+2	-1	8/15-17
50	42	3	9/12-16	Registered	CBS/NYT	0	+1	9/6-8
49	44	3	9/7-8	Likely	Fox	-2	+1	8/24-25
52	45	3	9/6-8	Registered	ABC/WP	0	-2	8/26-29
50	43	3	9/6-8	Registered	CBS	+4	-2	7/30- 8/1
52	46	4	9/3-5	Registered	CNN/USA	+3	-1	8/23-25

Re-Elect						Trend
Yes	No	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Yes	No	Since
48	46	4	9/30-10/2	Registered	Newsweek	-2	0	9/9-10
50	47	3	9/25-28	Likely	LA Times	N/A	N/A	N/A
47	49	3.5	9/21-23	Registered	Time	-5	+4	9/7-9
47	50	3.1	9/17-19	Likely	Zogby	+1	+1	9/8-9
45	51	4	9/9-13	Likely	Harris	N/A	N/A
52	45	3	9/7-9	Registered	Time	+3	-3	8/31- 9/2

Right Direction/Wrong Track						Trend
Right	Wrong	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Right	Wrong	Since
42	53	3	9/25-28	Likely	LA Times	N/A	N/A	N/A
39	53	3.1	9/23	Likely	Battleground	0	+1	9/22
43	51	3.5	9/21-23	Registered	Time	-3	+2	9/7-9
38	53	3.5	9/20-22	Registered	Marist	-3	+5	7/30-8/2
43	52	3.1	9/19-21	Likely	Democracy Corps	-1	+1	9/12-14
41	53	3.1	9/12-15	Likely	Battleground	+1	-1	8/15-17
41	51	3	9/12-16	Registered	CBS/NY Times	-3	+1	9/6-8
46	49	3	9/7-9	Registered	Time	+1	-1	8/31-Sept. 2
44	52	3	9/6-8	Registered	CBS	+5	-3	7/30-Aug. 1

Favorable/Unfavorable Rating						Bush Trend		Kerry Trend
Bush	Kerry	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Fav	Unfav	Fav	Unfav	Since
49/46	52/40	4	9/30-10/2	Registered	Newsweek	-3	+2	+4	-4	9/9-10
54/46	48/50	3	9/25-28	Likely	LA Times	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
55/42	50/46	3.1	9/23	Likely	Battleground	0	-1	+1	-1
50/48	51/46	3.5	9/20-22	Registered	Marist	-1	+1	-5	+8	7/30-8/2
46/38	32/44	3	9/20-22	Registered	CBS/NYT	-1	0	+1	+2	9/12-16
52/43	48/34	3	9/21-22	Likely	Fox	+1	0	-1	0	9/7-8
47/38	31/42	3	9/12-16	Registered	CBS/NYT	0	-1	-1	-1	9/6-8
55/44	51/44	3	9/13-15	Likely	Gallup	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
54/44	49/47	3.1	9/12-15	Likely	Battleground	+3	-3	-5	+5	8/15-17
49/46	51/40	2.5	9/11-14	Registered	Pew	-6	+6	+1	-4	9/8-10
54/38	43/42	3	9/7-9	Registered	Time	+9	-7	-10	+13	8/3-5
51/43	46/44	3	9/7-8	Likely	Fox	+1	-1	-2	+5	8/24-25
51/39	36/42	4	9/6-8	Registered	ABC/WP	+1	-1	-7	+2	8/26-29
47/39	32/41	3	9/6-8	Registered	CBS	+4	-5	-6	+7	7/30-8/1
55/44	53/43	4	9/3-5	Registered	CNN/USA	+1	0	+1	+3	8/23-25

								Electoral Vote
State	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Margin	Sample	Dates	Sponsor/ Pollster	Bush Solid	Bush Close	Kerry Close	Kerry Solid
AL	54	40	1	4	Likely	9/13-16	American Research Group	9
AK	57	30	5	4	Likely	9/9-11	American Research Group	3
AZ	49	38	N/A	4.1	Registered	9/23-26	Arizona State	10
AR	53	44	N/A	4.2	Likely	9/27-29	Survey USA	6
CA	39	51	N/A	3	Likely	9/12-19	Public Policy Institute				55
CO	52	44	N/A	4	Likely	9/21-23	Survey USA	9
CT	39	54	1	4	Likely	9/12-14	American Research Group				7
DE	41	50	2	4	Likely	9/13-15	American Research Group				3
DC	11	78	6	4	Likely	9/11-13	American Research Group				3
FL	52	43	1	4	Likely	9/24-27	CNN/USA	27
GA	53	42	0	4	Likely	9/11-13	American Research Group	15
HI	41	51	4	4	Likely	9/7-11	American Research Group				4
ID	59	30	3	4	Likely	9/8-10	American Research Group	4
IL	40	49	N/A	4	Likely	9/17-20	Tribune/WGN				21
IN	54	38	N/A	4	Likely	9/7-9	Research 2000	11
IA	48	45	1	3	Likely	9/21-22	Fox News		7
KS	57	35	2	4	Likely	9/15-18	American Research Group	6
KY	53	38	3	3.8	Likely	9/10-15	Bluegrass Poll	8
LA	50	42	1	4	Likely	9/17-21	American Research Group	9
ME	42	45	N/A	4	Likely	9/10-23	Critical Insights			4
MD	43	52	2	4	Likely	9/7-9	American Research Group				10
MA	27	64		4	Likely	9/10-13	American Research Group				12
MI	50	48	N/A	3.5	Likely	9/22-28	Detroit Free Press		17
MN	46	46	N/A	4.5	Likely	9/18-24	Rasmussen		10
MS	51	42	1	4	Likely	9/14-17	American Research Group	6
MO	50	44	N/A	4	Likely	9/16-19	American Research Group		11
MT	53	33	N/A	4	Registered	5/24-26	Mason-Dixon	3
NE	61	30	2	4	Likely	9/9-12	American Research Group	5
NV	47	42	2	4	Likely	9/20-28	Las Vegas Sun		5
NH	46	46	2	4	Likely	9/20-23	Research 2000	4
NJ	44	45	2	4.5	Likely	9/23-28	Farleigh Dickinson University			15
NM	47	43	2	4	Likely	9/15-16	Mason Dixon		5
NY	40	52	1	4	Likely	9/14-16	American Research Group				31
NC	50	44	N/A	4	Likely	9/20-22	Research 2000		15
ND	62	33	1	4	Likely	7-10		3
OH	49	47	1	4	Likely	9/25-28	CNN/USA		20
OK	64	30	N/A	5	Registered	9/1-2	Westhill Partners	7
OR	45	47	N/A	4	Registered	9/24-27	KATU-TV			7
PA	49	46	1	4	Likely	9/25-28	CNN/USA		21
RI	30	58	4	4	Likely	9/11-13	American Research Group				4
SC	54	42	N/A	4	Registered	9/7-9	Public Opinion Strategies	8
SD	58	39	N/A	4.4	Registered	8/24-26	Public Opinion Strategies	3
TN	53	37	1	4	Likely	9/11-14	Mason-Dixon	11
TX	57	34	N/A	3	Registered	8/9-26	Scripps Howard	34
UT	64	27	4	4	Likely	9/10-13	American Research Group	5
VT	40	50	4	4	Likely	9/9-12	American Research Group				3
VA	49	43	N/A	4	Likely	9/12-14	American Research Group		13
WA	46	51	N/A	4	Likely	9/19-21	Survey USA			11
WV	51	45	N/A	5	Likely	9/17-20	Gallup		5
WI	52	38	4	4	Likely	9/16-21	University of Wisconsin	10
WY	65	29	2	4	Likely	9/9-11	American Research Group	3

E-MAIL

RECOMMEND... Get Slate RSS Feeds

Photographs of: George Bush smiling by Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images; Bush frowning by Kevin Lamarque/Reuters; John Kerry smiling by Jason Cohn/Reuters; Kerry frowning by David Denoma/Reuters.

What did you think of this article?

Join The Fray: Our Reader Discussion Forum

POST A MESSAGE | READ MESSAGES