The XX Factor: Slate women blog about politics, etc...

Two Cheers For Dithering

I feel sort of sorry for the Republicans today as they face the end of their interlude of disarray. And I can't share the editorialists' dour view of the bruising fight ahead for the Democrats, whose race is still so unsettled. Here's to continued dithering! Like Meghan yesterday, writing from Texas, and Anne from Poland, what I'm fascinated by, and totally in step with, is the mood of indecision and unpredictability. Lots of people headed into the voting booth not sure which way they'd go: That's what I heard, too, from family and friends in the Northeast. And it's not just mushy Democrats who are still wavering, but evangelicals as well, hardly your waffling type. Take a look at the astonishing Barna Group study Hanna cited yesterday, and what's really striking is that so many evangelicals--the subset of born-again Christians who are really conservative (believe that everything the Bible asserts is true, that God is perfect and all-knowing, etc.)--haven't made up their minds, either: "a whopping 40%," as the study puts it, are still undecided (with 45 percent ready to support the Republican nominee, and 11 percent the Democratic contender). And this from a voting bloc that has until now seemed made of granite: 85 percent of evangelicals voted Republican in 2004. So many ditherers on all sides don't seem to add up to an embattled nation, entrenched in polarized camps. We're baffling the pollsters. Who knows, maybe we can surprise ourselves, too.

Change Is Good. Polls Are Caca.

1) Change is good: The single most unambiguous piece of information to come out of last night is that Democrats see the promise of change as way more important than the value of experience—52 percent to 23 percent said it was the No. 1 thing they were looking for in a candidate. And since in '08 shorthand Obama equals change and Clinton equals experience, this can only be good news for him; the candidate who wins the argument about what the election is over generally wins the election. (Only "generally'' may no longer apply, which leads us to our second lesson.)

2) Polls are caca, and all the rules have been suspended. Even more than has been generally acknowledged, this race is so fluid and voters so volatile that pollsters can't seem to keep up, and known patterns seem not to apply. The good in this is that it challenges some of our laziest assumptions and silliest stereotypes like ...

3) Conservatives are sheep who go bah, bah, bah all the way home. Not true, and I don't think it's so much that conservative talk radio has lost its influence as that it never had the authority to issue edicts in the first place; when Rush and Laura and Sean reflect conservative opinion, they do magnify it, but when they don't, voters seem to have no trouble dissenting.

4) Women across the ideological spectrum look great in red. Nah, scratch that one; Cindy McCain and Michelle Obama look good in anything. And on that positive note, one day down, 39 to go.