The XX Factor: What women really think.

Who Is Hillary Pulling Women From?

A smart XX Factor reader wrote in to make a great point about where the increase in Clinton's support among women is coming from:

Obama's percentage of female voters was virtually unchanged -- it only dropped from 35% [Iowa] to 34% [New Hampshire]. Therefore, Clinton's increase of 17% had to come from elsewhere. Where? From Edwards and the also-ran candidates -- an intriguing fact that no one seems to be discussing in answering Emily's question about why the difference between Iowa's and NH's women voters. Edwards' percentage of the female vote plummeted from 23% to 15%, a decrease of almost a third. Women also virtually abandoned the minor candidates, as their share of the female vote fell from 12% to 4%.

OK, so having missed this until now, which I definitely did, what do we make of it? I'd been thinking that as Edwards' support diminishes, as I think it will, Obama would benefit. That's the conventional wisdom, right--Edwards' voters are also "change" voters, and so they'll go in greater numbers to Obama. But if the women who were leaning toward Edwards or were up for grabs move to Clinton instead, that changes the calculus. I guess it's good news for Obama that his percentage of women held steady in the first two contests. That implies that he's not actually losing women who have been his solid supporters. But if Hillary is going to pick up an increasing share of all the other women as Edwards fades, then the gender gap will continue to widen in her favor.