Trailhead: A campaign blog.

Mr. Nice Guy

News outlets are projecting that John McCain has won the South Carolina primary—a win that once again makes him the front-runner in a still-crowded Republican field. And he has the civility of that crowded field to thank for his second victory.

In 2000, much was made about the dirty tricks played on McCain, but this time nobody messed with the senior nominee. As Jonathan Martin at Politico notes, his rivals didn't mention him by name and decided to attack one another rather than McCain (who has plenty of policy positions worth attacking, including immigration, tax cuts, and executive experience). By most accounts, the dirty tricks also decreased, with tamer windshield fliers and the normal inflammatory calls that were delivered in all states.

McCain's three-percentage-point win could have been stopped by a few attack ads here and there. At first, it seems strange McCain wasn't knocked around on TV. Mitt Romney already aired attack ads in New Hampshire, but his half-hearted efforts in the state over the past week meant Romney didn't want to spend the resources against McCain in a state he wasn't going to win. Fred Thompson had nothing to lose, but he and McCain are friends, and he didn't have the money to air many ads. And Mike Huckabee gave his infamous no-attack-ad press conference in Iowa, which meant he was out of the running. Huckabee even complimented McCain's civility in his concession speech.

Does this mean we'll see an outbreak of niceness on the campaign trail in Florida? Doubtful. Mitt Romney returns at full strength in the Sunshine State and Rudy Giuliani may surface as a desperate candidate as Jan. 29 draws nigh.

Before his campaign crashed over the summer, McCain was the for-sure front-runner, but he bobbled his chance at the nomination without any attack ads to aid his fall. History is unlikely to repeat itself this time.

The Exit Polls Arrive

Juicy bits from CNN's exit polls:

• Mike Huckabee and John McCain are in a tight race at the top.
• Young voters lean toward Huckabee, but seniors greatly favor McCain. This isn't surprising but could be a major factor if older voters turned out in greater numbers than the kiddies.
• Mitt Romney won the plurality of votes from Catholics who go to church weekly, which is good news for his campaign after his big Mormon speech a month or two ago. (Unsurprisingly, very religious voters of all denominations preferred Huckabee.)
• Only 9 percent of Catholics, who made up 14 percent of CNN's voter pool, voted for Huckabee. Thirty-nine percent voted for McCain.
• Forty-one percent of South Carolina voters thought McCain had the best chance of winning in November.
• Fifty-eight percent of voters, according to CNN's exit polls, were born-again Christians or evangelicals. They favor Huckabee 41 percent to McCain's 27 percent. Only 11 percent of non-born-agains and evangelicals voted for Huck.
• Huckabee won support among those who care most about immigration, McCain among those who care most about Iraq. Again, this follows the polling we saw before the primary.
• 25 percent of voters were veterans, and that group favored McCain. Huckabee and McCain were essentially tied among non-veterans.

We offer the usual disclaimer that exit polls are just polls, not results.