Trailhead: A campaign blog.

Straight Talk Strategy

John McCain’s camp plays Nostradamus in a campaign strategy PowerPoint that they released on their Web site yesterday, and it’s an insightful peek into the psyche of the once-beleaguered campaign.

Essentially, McCain thinks he’ll win New Hampshire and momentum will carry him from there. Some highlights of the strategy—with some caveats attached:

• McCain is a modern-day Reagan: His campaign thinks he is the only conservative Republican who can keep the Reagan coalition together. Giuliani is too far left and Romnabee hangs too close to the religious right. Problem: That may be true, but poll numbers suggest the religious right is the cool kid in Iowa and South Carolina.
• McCain = Electability: Poll numbers suggest he is the strongest Republican to face off against Hillary Clinton. Problem: What about Giuliani? He has polled well nationally for a reason, and attracts more moderate and independent voters than McCain. Plus, what if the Democrats don’t nominate Hillary?
• New Hampshire, New Hampshire: After Romney loses Iowa, McCain thinks New Hampshire residents will vote for him like they did in 2000. This time, he has Curt Schilling to get him over the top. Problem: With or without an Iowa win, Romney is still from neighboring Massachusetts. That may buy him some percentage points.
• Florida is key: Who cares that more than 20 states are voting on Feb. 5? McCain thinks that Florida will vote for whomever has the most momentum on Jan. 29, which will only help boost his momentum going into Feb. 5. Problem: What if a bunch of different candidates take the first three or four states leading up to Florida? Huckabee wins Iowa, Romney wins New Hampshire, Giuliani wins South Carolina, and McCain wins Michigan. In that case, no candidate is likely to bust through Giuliani’s firewall in Florida.

McCain can certainly win the nomination, but his campaign is banking on a complicated chain reaction to produce a victory. If a McCain win in New Hampshire doesn't materialize, then he doesn't have a catalyst. Without a catalyst, McCain's political equation won't produce a nomination.

Pleading the Fifth

Rudy Giuliani got the memo about the importance of early primary states. He's just choosing to ignore it. 

While Iowa and New Hampshire are crucial states for most Republican candidates, Rudy Giuliani thinks of them more as a nuisance. Giuliani's campaign told reporters today that they think Giuliani can lose the first three contests in the cycle and still win the nomination. They essentially conceded defeat in Iowa and New Hampshire to Mitt Romney, who has double-digit leads in the polls and has poured millions into radio and television advertising.

Instead of the traditional strategy, Giuliani is hoping that Feb. 5 is a second Christmas, one where he'll be given hundreds of delegates wrapped inside a Romney concession speech. According to his campaign manager and strategy director, Giuliani can come away with delegates from January primaries in Florida and Michigan, where he leads in polls. Then on Feb. 5, the campaign figures, Giuliani's popularity in the New York region will guarantee him at least the 200 delegates from Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York, plus many from the other 16 states that hold contests on "Tsunami Tuesday." 

This strategy borders on hubris, but it also wisely lowers the bar. If the press starts railing on Giuliani for poor showings in the first two contests he can just say, "I told you so." But can a national front-runner really set expectations that low and expect to stay out front? If Giuliani finishes fourth in Iowa to Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and maybe even Ron Paul (gasp!), could his candidacy still be taken seriously? What if Romney, Paul, and McCain trump him again in New Hampshire? As a Connecticut native, I can tell you Giuliani isn't in for a soft landing on the icy streets of the Nutmeg State (where he called his lead "momentum-proof"). 

For Giuliani, his strategy is necessitated by disappointing polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. And to be fair, Giuliani has a real shot at winning South Carolina, where he's locked in a race for first with Fred Thompson and a surging Romney. But his explicit focus beyond Iowa and New Hampshire won't help his supporters in those states court new converts. Proof that Giuliani is thinking long term: He spends this week in Missouri, Florida, the Dakotas, and Washington, D.C. Iowa and New Hampshire aren't even on the schedule.