Trailhead: A campaign blog.

Eff You, Iowa!

Even if Barack Obama loses Iowa, he could still win the nomination. Seriously.

The conventional wisdom is that if Clinton wins Iowa, Obama's shot at the presidency is shot. While that's certainly possible—and probably probable—pundits seem to be forgetting that momentum isn't everything. 

There's a very real chance Obama could win New Hampshire even if he loses Iowa by a reasonable amount (e.g., less than five percentage points). Obama is essentially tied with Clinton in New Hampshire in polling averages, and John Edwards is less of a factor in the competition for the change vote. More telling, perhaps, is that only 6 percent of New Hampshire Democrats say their own vote will be swayed by the Iowa outcome. (Of course, who would cop to that?) Plus, New Hampshire has picked a different winner than Iowa in the Democratic primary three of the past five contested cycles (although not in the past two).

So, what if New Hampshire asserts itself and plays contrarian to Iowa's conventional wisdom? In a year when it was en vogue to hate on New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary, it's reasonable to think that residents will give the finger to the media, Iowa, and the rest of the country. Live-free-or-die pride is on the line. 

One question has percolated in the background all cycle: Are voters waiting for somebody else to tell them it's OK to vote for the black guy with little experience but a big idea? An Obama win in the Granite State would start revealing the answer.

If Obama defeated Clinton in her former firewall state, all of the Clinton inevitability stories will be washed away by pro-Obama headlines. Clinton would probably win Nevada regardless (unless the culinary union backs Obama), which brings us to Jan. 26 in South Carolina. There, Obama's campaign thinks the black population will come out to vote as long as one of the first two states confirms Obama as a viable candidate.

Now, it's still more likely for Clinton to emerge the victor from most of the four meaningful early primaries. But if she and Obama split them, momentum won't be as large a factor. Momentum, after all, is only useful for convincing voters that votes won't be wasted. Anyone who wins two out of the first four states has proven viability, if not electability. 

Pleading the Fifth

Rudy Giuliani got the memo about the importance of early primary states. He's just choosing to ignore it. 

While Iowa and New Hampshire are crucial states for most Republican candidates, Rudy Giuliani thinks of them more as a nuisance. Giuliani's campaign told reporters today that they think Giuliani can lose the first three contests in the cycle and still win the nomination. They essentially conceded defeat in Iowa and New Hampshire to Mitt Romney, who has double-digit leads in the polls and has poured millions into radio and television advertising.

Instead of the traditional strategy, Giuliani is hoping that Feb. 5 is a second Christmas, one where he'll be given hundreds of delegates wrapped inside a Romney concession speech. According to his campaign manager and strategy director, Giuliani can come away with delegates from January primaries in Florida and Michigan, where he leads in polls. Then on Feb. 5, the campaign figures, Giuliani's popularity in the New York region will guarantee him at least the 200 delegates from Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York, plus many from the other 16 states that hold contests on "Tsunami Tuesday." 

This strategy borders on hubris, but it also wisely lowers the bar. If the press starts railing on Giuliani for poor showings in the first two contests he can just say, "I told you so." But can a national front-runner really set expectations that low and expect to stay out front? If Giuliani finishes fourth in Iowa to Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and maybe even Ron Paul (gasp!), could his candidacy still be taken seriously? What if Romney, Paul, and McCain trump him again in New Hampshire? As a Connecticut native, I can tell you Giuliani isn't in for a soft landing on the icy streets of the Nutmeg State (where he called his lead "momentum-proof"). 

For Giuliani, his strategy is necessitated by disappointing polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. And to be fair, Giuliani has a real shot at winning South Carolina, where he's locked in a race for first with Fred Thompson and a surging Romney. But his explicit focus beyond Iowa and New Hampshire won't help his supporters in those states court new converts. Proof that Giuliani is thinking long term: He spends this week in Missouri, Florida, the Dakotas, and Washington, D.C. Iowa and New Hampshire aren't even on the schedule.