Trailhead: A campaign blog.

Exit Polls 101

Exit polls out of North Carolina suggest that Obama has won the state by about 14 percentage points. While CNN does not report the overall percentages for each candidate, we can divine them by weighting the demographic breakdown between the candidates by each demographic’s turnout. For example, here’s the exit poll data for gender: 

From here, we deduce:

Clinton = (40% of males) * (43% male voters) + (42% females) * (57% female voters) = 41 percent of the vote

Obama = (56% of males) * (43% male voters) + (54% females) * (57% female voters) = 55 percent of the vote

We can do this for any of the exit poll categories and we’ll get similar results. 

Accord to Slate’s Delegate Calculator, a 14-point win for Obama in North Carolina will grant him a 66-49 advantage in pledged delegates in the state for a net gain of 17. Clinton netted 12 pledged delegates in her nine-point win in Pennsylvania, though it’s worth noting that the estimates of pledged-delegate leads are more likely to shrink than grow as the results from individual districts are reported.

If, however, Obama does end up posting a win in North Carolina of this magnitude, he is well positioned to at least cancel out the progress in delegates Clinton made in Pennsylvania.

The Generational Donut Hole

I know last night taught us (for the 12,348th time) not to trust exit polls. But there's a curious anomaly in last night's exit poll results that deserves a look. Here's how many New Hampshire voters of different ages said they supported Clinton and Obama:

18-24—Clinton: 22 %, Obama: 60 %
25-29—Clinton: 37 %, Obama: 35 %
30-39—Clinton: 36 %, Obama: 43 %
40-49—Clinton: 44 %, Obama: 33 %
50-64—Clinton: 39 %, Obama: 30 %
65 and up—Clinton: 48 %, Obama: 32 %

Obama carries the youngest demographic easily, given his emphasis on getting out the youth vote and his message of change and generational turnover. He performs well in the relatively young 30-39 bracket, as well. It's the 25-29 group that's so bizarre. What swung them toward Clinton, the "safe" candidate? Quarter-life crises? Newborn children? Identifying with Chelsea, who is 27?

It's like a mini-generation of realistic, pragmatic-minded youth in between two swaths of idealists. That or, more likely, exit polls aren't worth jack.