Friday, May 02, 2008 - Posts
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DemConWatch, the Rain Man of primary delegate counting, today breaks down six different scenarios for how Florida's and Michigan’s delegates could get allocated. If neither state’s delegates are counted, for example, Obama currently leads by 130 delegates. If you count Michigan but not Florida, that lead shrinks to 106. Count Florida but not Michigan, and it’s 107. (Notice how little difference there is between those two scenarios.) Count both contests, deny Obama any of the “uncommitted” votes from Michigan, and his lead shrinks to nine delegates.
The problem is, none of these scenarios is particularly plausible. Howard Dean says he plans to seat both Florida's and Michigan’s delegations at the convention. To do otherwise, when it could affect Democratic morale in November, would be insane. But to fulfill that pledge, he needs to sit both campaigns down and hammer out a compromise. (Assuming one of the candidates doesn’t drop out.) Then the party’s “credentials committee,” which meets in mid-June once voting is done, needs to approve the compromise. But right now it looks like that committee, composed of delegates loyal to Obama, Clinton, and Dean, will favor Obama. So, really, a “compromise” will be approved only if it doesn’t hurt Obama so much that he could lose the nomination, which pretty much rules out counting either state proportionally.
Two scenerios that fit this definition are 1) a 50-50 split, which would be acceptable to the Obama-dominated credentials committee since it essentially nullifies both votes, and 2) an option floated by Michigan Democratic Chairman Mark Brewer that falls halfway between the 50-50 split and a proportional allocation. Under this second plan, Clinton would get 69 delegates in Michigan, and Obama would get 59. If you applied the same logic to the Florida vote—not quite 50-50, but not quite proportional—Clinton would get 102 pledged delegates, and Obama would get 83. (The proportional split was 60-40 if you don’t count Edwards, so these numbers come from a 55-45 compromise scenario.)
A 50-50 split would preserve Obama's 130-delegate lead, because it’s as if the two states had never voted. (Dean is happy, though, because at least the delegations get to attend the convention. Phew!) A 111-74 split in Florida and 69-59 split in Michigan pare Obama’s lead down to 91 delegates. For the Obama camp, this is probably too close for comfort, but it would at least also let them say they reached a compromise without giving up a dangerous number of delegates.
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Clinton's prospects for surviving Indiana and North Carolina
continue to look favorable. Howard Dean still wants to seat Florida and
Michigan delegates—which would probably benefit Clinton—while another
former DNC chair endorses Obama. Jimmy Carter indicates he'll follow
the pledged delegates, which is good news for Obama. Plug all that into
the equation and Clinton pops up 0.2 points to 12.3 percent.
Last Friday, we compared the Clinton campaign to a shark that must continuously move forward in order to stay alive. Here's another muddled maritime metaphor that applies: that of a killer whale toying with a baby seal before inevitably eating it. Unfortunately for Clinton, she's the seal.
Read more at the Hillary Deathwatch.
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In an interview with Nightline yesterday, Clinton said, "If we had the Republican rules, I would already be the nominee."
This line—she and Bill have said it a few times now—has led to some marvelous takedowns, from Jon Stewart to the New Republic’s Christopher Orr. But here are some other things that would be true if Democratic primary had the Republican-style winner-take-all system:
- Barack Obama would have focused his energies on winning big states by a hair instead of racking up huge delegate leads in small caucus states.
- Momentum would be a bigger factor, since every win is a big win, making an 11-victory streak more devastating, PR-wise.
- John Edwards might have dropped out even earlier, freeing up voters in the Nevada and Michigan contests.
- Both candidates would have been free to campaign in Michigan and Florida. Clinton would probably have won Florida, but Michigan would be up in the air. Only half their delegates would count.
In other words, it would be a completely different contest.
And as Chris Wilson pointed out, if the Republicans used the Democratic system, Mitt Romney would be the Republican nominee—or at least still in the race.
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Former Slate intern and North Carolina native Jake Melville sends along this dispatch:
Barack Obama pitches himself as a "post-partisan" politician who can bridge our divides. But by playing a pickup game with the University of North Carolina Tar Heels earlier this week, he inadvertently took sides in one of the nation’s bitterest rivalries.
The Duke-UNC rivalry (more like blood feud, really) is the dividing line in North Carolina sports. There may be no red America or blue America, but there are two very distinct shades of blue in North Carolina. Has Obama finally ditched his message of hope and unity by associating with Coach Roy Williams and Tyler Hansborough instead of Coach K. and Greg Paulus?
Perhaps. But shooting hoops with UNC was no doubt a shrewd political move. Everyone knows Obama has had trouble courting white working-class voters. In Pennsylvania, he lost the Rust Belt area around Pittsburgh by a whopping 23 percent. The UNC scrimmage could be a deliberate appeal to this group. Whereas Duke is seen as rich, white, upper-class elite—Obama’s base—UNC is considered more populist, democratic, and working class. For Obama, one Tar Heels scrimmage is worth a thousand rounds of bowling.
Of course, there’s always the risk of alienating Duke fans. The blue-blue divide is so tense, it makes the red-blue divide look amicable. But if Obama can make significant inroads with the UNC demographic next week, it will weaken Hillary Clinton’s argument that Obama can’t win the party’s core voters. Maybe it’s time for Clinton to suit up.
Update 4:17 p.m.: Frayster "sdloughlin" begs to differ:
Obama's recent scrimmage with the Tar Heels was actually very much
in keeping with his efforts to bridge all divides. Prior to this
scrimmage, he had done work on both sides of "the court" if you will.
His body man is Reggie Love, former varsity basketball and football
player for Duke. He picked UNC to win in his NCAA brackets. At his 3 on
3 tournament in Indiana, his teammate was current WNBA star and former
Blue Devil, Allison Bales.
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