Monday, January 14, 2008 - Posts
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The lawsuit filed
by a Nevada
teachers’ union on Friday to keep Vegas Strip workers (the place, not the
profession) from caucusing in their workplaces is making a lot of people look
and sound crazy. But hey, that’s a caucus.
The main reason for the rage: The lawsuit is transparently
political. The Nevada State Education Association hasn’t endorsed a
candidate yet, but many of its leaders openly support Hillary Clinton. Now that the
Culinary Workers union has endorsed Barack Obama, the nine new “At-Large”
precincts set up in Vegas hotels—where a vast number of culinary workers will
likely turn out—threaten Clinton’s
prospects. The plaintiffs claim that these caucus-goers would have
disproportionate influence compared to Nevadans who caucus in their home
districts. But seeing as they never complained about this fact until the Culinary
Workers endorsed Obama, their last-minute objection looks suspect.
Obama practically turned it into a civil rights issue:
“Are we going to let a bunch of lawyers try to prevent us from bringing about
change in America?”
A group of Nevada
teachers agreed
with him, firing off an angry letter to their own union asking it to drop the
suit.
Meanwhile, Bill Clinton weighed
in in the name of fairness: “I think the rules ought to be the same for
everyone. I question why you would ever have a temporary caucus site and limit
to a certain kind of workers.”
But even if the lawsuit is political, that doesn’t mean it’s
wrong. The plaintiffs’ main contention—that voters in at-large precincts will
have more influence than other Nevadans—may well be accurate. All Nevada precincts
allocate one delegate per 50 registered voters; the at-large precincts would
likely allocate more than that, according to the lawsuit (PDF here).
But then again, caucus math is arbitrary in the first place. Who came up with the
15 percent viability requirement? Why hold the caucus at 11 a.m., instead of
after dinner? Why not create at-large precincts all over the state, not just on the Strip?
The whole system is so random that this deviation from sanity seems no more
offensive than any of the others. And seeing as this is Nevada's maiden voyage with the caucus system, there's no precedent. Bon voyage!
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John Edwards is in denial. Sure, a new poll shows he may have a chance at doing well in Nevada this Saturday, but that pesky viability threshold of 15 percent will likely get in his way. His poll numbers in South Carolina are stuck in the mid-teens, and even a win in Nevada is unlikely to propel him very far. Plus, Edwards' spending is capped because he took public money to fund his campaign.
In the face of these daunting odds, is he quitting? Hell, no. He's soldiering on so he can help the American middle class rise up. After New Hampshire, he even said that he's in through the convention. Edwards' denial is only the first step in his five stages of grief. Here's what to expect as Edwards wills his candidacy on through his electoral grief.
- Denial -Today Edwards' campaign had a conference call with reporters where staffers repeatedly said that two states (Iowa and New Hampshire) don't decide an election. The only problem: For him, they do. When you spend four years shaking Iowans' hands, it's a slap in the face if they turn their backs when it counts most. Also, on the denial front: a leaked memo (PDF) that says "Clinton is too corporate to offer voters real change" and "Obama is too weak to stand up to Republicans." Edwards blames the media and the "celebrity candidates' " wallets for his second- and third-place finishes. Estimated time span: Present - South Carolina's primary, Jan. 26.
- Anger - Edwards has been campaigning with a fiery rage from the get-go, so his tone will only get harsher during this stage. Expect flailing attacks at Obama and Clinton in an attempt to weaken them in time for the Feb. 5 states. Because Edwards doesn't have as much money as Obama and Clinton, he'll have to make headlines by any means possible. In November, Edwards semi-famously said his attacks against Clinton were milquetoast, not mudslinging. This time, he may drag Clinton and Obama into the mud pit with him, critically injuring the party in the process. Estimated time span: Jan. 27 - Super, Super Tuesday, Feb. 5.
- Bargaining - Assuming Edwards comes up short on Feb. 5, he'll try to stay relevant not by winning, but by negotiating. Because the Democrats award their delegates proportionately in each state, Edwards will certainly have some leverage that he can dangle in front of Obama and Clinton. Plus, an Edwards endorsement would mean a great deal if the nominee isn't sorted out after Super Tuesday. Obama is the most likely target for a bargain, which would probably entail Obama beefing up his middle-class/anti-lobbyist message in exchange for immunity from Edwards' scorn. Think of it as an implicit endorsement. Estimated time span: Feb. 5 - mid-March.
- Depression - With the nomination securely in somebody else's hands, Edwards will probably fade from the political scene for a bit. He may not have officially dropped out of the race, but that doesn't mean he's in it, either. Symptoms include: decreased campaign schedule, monotonous stump speeches, and skipped primaries. Estimated time span: March - July.
- Acceptance - At some point, Edwards will have to face the music, and it won't be played by Jackson Browne and Bonnie Raitt. There are only so many ways to crunch the delegate numbers and so many "Mill" ads you can run before you have to bow to defeat. This election, Edwards won't be the VP, but maybe somebody will offer him a new Secretary of Change Cabinet position. Something tells me he'll accept that.
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“I’m very aware that most of you came to see Chuck,” Mike Huckabee told a crowd last week in Rochester, N.H. A group of boys who did not appear to be of voting age confirmed this: “We love you, Chuck!”
Back when Huckabee first announced that Norris would be doing some fund raising for him, America laughed. At, not with. If anything, Norris’ involvement confirmed Huckabee’s candidacy as a fringy three-ring circus. Then Norris appeared in a TV spot. Then he started traveling with Huckabee. Then, when Huckabee won Iowa, there was Norris, peering over the governor’s shoulder during his victory speech.
But now Norris has become a defining face in Mike Huckabee’s campaign, so much that today’s announcement—“Mike Huckabee’s Band To Play and Martial Artists to Join Forces During Jan. 20th Online Texas Fundraiser Hosted by Chuck Norris”—feels utterly ordinary. Just another barbecue/political fund-raiser/rock concert/ninja demonstration.
Watching Norris speak in New Hampshire, I wanted to pinch myself. I am actually writing down words coming out of Chuck Norris’ mouth. It feels silly until you realize that what he says is no sillier than the ideas expressed by Huckabee’s other endorsers. (One possible exception: Norris’ anecdote about throwing an American soldier in Iraq into a sleeper hold and accidentally suffocating him.) Norris tries not to overshadow Huckabee, but he can’t resist talking about the time he sky-dived with George Bush Sr. Or the several times he visited Iraq. When Norris is working the crowd, it’s easy to forget that Huckabee is the main act.
Once you consider that Jesse “the Body” Ventura got elected governor of Minnesota and Arnold Schwarzenegger is being credited as a transformational figure in the Republican party, it’s not a leap to imagine Norris seeking—and holding—elected office. He’s ex-Air Force. He served in South Korea between ’58 and ‘62, where he became a black belt in Tang Soo Do. He founded a program for at-risk children. He has become a semiregular Fox News commentator, where his conservative ideas are taken as seriously as anyone’s. Elections have been won with a lot less.
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An interview with Barack Obama in the Las Vegas Sun reveals yet another tidbit about the Illinois senator's Wire fandom:
Obama told the Sun his favorite character is Omar, a stick-up artist who steals from drug dealers and then gives the loot to poor people in the neighborhood.
“That’s not an endorsement. He’s not my favorite person, but he’s a fascinating character.”
TNR's Michael Crowley calls this moment "A small but telling example of why, on a superficial level, the media falls for Obama." Agreed, but keep in mind that Obama isn't staying current with Season 5, which in our book is sort of like missing the NIE on Iran.
P.S.: Remember, The Wire is popular among more than just liberal media types.
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This weekend’s big flap was a coy statement made by BET founder Bob Johnson that seems to refer—scratch that, unmistakably refers—to Barack Obama’s admitted drug use. Here’s his quote:
And to me, as an African-American, I am frankly insulted that the Obama campaign would imply that we are so stupid that we would think Hillary and Bill Clinton, who have been deeply and emotionally involved in black issues since Barack Obama was doing something in the neighborhood – and I won’t say what he was doing, but he said it in the book – when they have been involved. [Video here.]
The Obama campaign came out swinging. “I don't see why this is so much different from what Billy Shaheen did in New Hampshire,” David Axelrod said, referring to Shaheen’s suggestion the GOP rivals would use Obama’s past drug use against him.
Then came Johnson’s explanation: "My comments today were referring to Barack Obama's time spent as a community organizer, and nothing else. Any other suggestion is simply irresponsible and incorrect.”
That this explanation is ludicrous on its face shouldn't take much convincing. It makes no sense that Johnson would use that kind of wink-nudge innuendo to refer to Obama’s community organizing. But that’s not the worst part. The biggest scandal is that the Clinton campaign tacitly endorses his excuse. Not only did they release Johnson’s explanatory statement, now Bill Clinton has said in a radio interview that “we have to take [Johnson] at his word.” He's right—he has to take Johnson at his word, seeing as Johnson's word is now the campaign's word. But that doesn't mean we have to.
So, why doesn't Johnson just admit he was referring to coke, apologize, and be done with it? The answer is that Johnson is different from Shaheen. As race issues take center stage in the run-up to the South Carolina primary, the Clinton campaign can use all the help from African-American endorsers it can get. (Obama's rise has caused considerable strife among the old guard, many of whom are still waffling between the two senators.) Cutting off Johnson for his remarks would kill a valuable campaign asset: an influential black man testifying against Obama.
It's just sad that Johnson's original point—that to impugn the Clintons' dedication to the black community is insulting—became an insult itself: An insult to our intelligence.
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From a press release sent out by the Clinton camp:
*** MEDIA
ADVISORY***
Hillary Clinton To Attend SEIU 32 BJ Event Honoring the Legacy of Martin Luther King Jr., Monday
When you see the words "Clinton" and "BJ
event" in the same sentence, you don't expect it to be a King day celebration. That union must get this a lot.
Special thanks to Daniel Gross for his eagle eye.