Maverick No More
John McCain, welcome to the club. In the past, McCain has
been known as everything from maverick to fringe candidate to walking dead man.
(Last month, we used
the words “McCain” and “embalming fluid” in the same sentence.) He has appealed
to an unlikely combination of independents, national security buffs, war hawks,
and immigration moderates. The question was always whether he could assemble
anything resembling the coalition necessary to win the Republican nomination.
Tonight doesn’t seal the deal, but it’s the beginning of the
end. Momentum-wise, McCain will ride into the Feb. 5 states with a crown
already hovering somewhere near his head, if not sitting on it. That means more
free media (as if he needs it), more donations, more endorsements, and bigger
crowds—all the flakes that make up the ever-growing snowball. Delegate-wise,
he’s now the clear front-runner, with 89 pledged delegates to Romney’s 27.
Now McCain has to spend his capital wisely. He has shown he
can win without independents, seeing as this was a closed election. But the
results also prove McCain can compete on Romney’s turf. Exit polls showed him
towering over Romney among Hispanics—a fact he should exploit in California. Floridians
most concerned about the economy also preferred McCain over his rival—and he
should use that, too, in states hit hardest by the recent market swings. After Florida, Romney’s “base”
is starting to look a lot less stable.
There may even a death blow coming. Word has it Giuliani
will endorse McCain tomorrow. (In his remarks tonight, Rudy said everything you
need for a drop-out speech short of “I am dropping out.”) If so, that could
seal the deal for McCain. Granted, Giuliani supporters might have swung to the Arizona senator anyway.
But the endorsement adds symbolic heft to the reshuffling. And even if you tacked
only half of Giuliani’s 15 percent or so from tonight onto McCain’s, he would
have a punishing lead.
“Our victory might not have reached landslide proportions,”
McCain said in his speech tonight, “but it is sweet nonetheless.” If Florida is any indication, he'll taste it again. But he knows the price. "Tonight, my friends, we celebrate," he said. "Tomorrow, it's back to work."