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Posted
Friday, January 18, 2008 6:45 PM
| By
Chadwick Matlin
Our last
death watch paid tribute to two fallen Democrats, and we’ve seen one more
leave the political landscape since. Soon they’ll have a Republican to keep
them company in the political afterlife. Here’s our concession-rankings as Nevadans
and South Carolina’s
Republicans go to the polls Saturday:
Dead on arrival
Fred Thompson –
After a disastrous campaign, it will be sad to see him go. Thompson is like the
sleepy uncle at Thanksgiving who doesn’t say much, but it doesn’t matter
because everybody likes talking about his personality quirks anyway. Thompson
is an unwavering fourth-placer in South
Carolina, and anything but a close second or a win
there means he’s done. Fred, I channel Sarah McLaughlin’s classic when I say, I will remember you—Doo
be dah dum dum.
Walking
dead:
John Edwards – He’s gearing up for another third-place finish in Nevada, a
state where his pro-union rhetoric could have done him some good if he had more
momentum coming out of the early primary states. Instead, Obama has the union
momentum and Clinton
leads in the polls. But Edwards’
denial will not waver. There’s an embarrassment waiting in South Carolina—and it’s
at the polls, not the mills.
The enigmas
Ron Paul – He’s campaigned hard in Nevada,
where his campaign thinks his libertarian message might finally resonate with
voters for a strong third-place finish, with support in the mid-teens. But the
longer this race draws on and the more often Paul finishes with 8-9 percent of
support, the more likely he’ll stay for the long haul and hope the other candidates’
withdrawals will somehow send him support. A fine idea in principle—he’s got
the money—but none of the other Republicans’ message mesh with his, so it’s
unlikely GOP voters will jump on the bandwagon.
Dennis Kucinich – Since our last death watch he’s
asked for a recount in New Hampshire, was beaten by a
nameless, faceless aggregation of candidates in Michigan, filed a lawsuit
that ended
up in the Nevada supreme court. Yet, the peace warrior soldiers on.
Mike Gravel – Mike, we miss the days of Rock.
Duncan Hunter – Somehow, there’s always at least one
more piece of Hunter news for every death watch.
Healthy.
For now.
John McCain and Mike Huckabee – Conventional wisdom says both of these
candidates could be wounded by a poor showing. But they pull their support from
such different bases that a vote against one isn’t necessarily a vote for the
other. That’s why even when one of these guys falls, the
other is likely to pick him up. It’s like a GOP buddy cop movie, without the
homoerotic tension.
Not going anywhere
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama – At this point, it seems likely that
Clinton and Obama are in the race past Feb. 5, when most votes will have
voted. With Edwards sticking around, neither candidate will probably be able to
grab the overwhelming majority of delegates that will force the other out.
Rudy Giuliani – The question for Rudy: Has the press become bored by his Florida and Feb. 5
theatrics? Or will they flock to the mayor once they’re in the same state as
him again? We think the latter, but it won’t mean much if Florida residents don’t reward Giuliani for
his loyalty and non-stop campaigning in the state.
Mitt Romney – A win in Nevada would make
him the Delegate King going into Florida.
But kings risk uprisings unless they hammer down on their rivals, something
Romney (and every other former-frontrunner in the party) hasn’t figured out how
to do yet.